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货币基金规模半年狂飙万亿 新起点上收益怎么走?

2017-07-26 11:15:03   央广网

大部分资金进入银行系统,银行活期存款利率仅0.35%左右,货币基金为何却可以破“4”?中国社科院金融研究所银行研究室主任曾刚指出,货币基金的存款以协议存款的方式存入银行,而协议存款的利率往往比活期存款的利率更高。加之这段时间金融领域去杠杆使市场利率抬升,银行的协议存款利率也随之提高,利率的变化也反映在货币基金上。

降低风险偏好 隐忧犹在

在经历了4月债券市场的调整之后,二季度货币基金的资产配置风险偏好变得更加保守。一个明显的特征是,货币基金减少了短期融资券与企业债配置,并提高国债的配置比例,银行存款、同业存单比重提升明显。

如余额宝总资产中,银行存款和结算备付金占比82.95%,较一季度的64.32%提升了19个百分点,更多的资金向银行体系聚拢。同时,余额宝二季度买入返售金融资产和投资债券的比重较一季度“缩水”近半,转为个位数。其中,买入返售金融资产占比由20%降至8.9%,投资债券比重由16%降至7.9%。

排在货币基金规模第二位的工银货币在二季度的资产配置中,银行存款和结算备付金占基金总资产比重达50.88%,债券投资占比仅25.43%。而债券投资组合中,同业存单占资金资产净值比重为20.35%。其基金经理在季报中指出,“在实体信用风险仍然存在的情况下,本基金一直严控债券配置的信用资质。”

建信现金添利货币二季度资产配置与工银货币相似,银行存款和结算备付金占基金总资产比重58.28%,是配置大头。债券和买入返售金融资产占比分别为20.79%、19.94%。同业存单占资产净值比重15.79%。

不过,尽管规模较大的货币基金投资风险偏好渐趋保守,货币基金背后的风险仍需得到重视。惠誉评级近期发布报告警示,中国最大的三个货币基金占中国货币基金市场规模的三分之一,基金行业的资产集中度将加剧风险。报告认为,如果大型基金进行大额或突然的资产再分配,可能影响市场流动性或定价机制。

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院客座研究员董希淼曾指出,货币基金只能依靠新申购资金以及变现持有资产两种方式补充流动性,一旦金融市场出现较大波动或基金有负面信息,大量用户短期内赎回极易引发风险。

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