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“吉林药方” 药力几何

2017-08-30 06:21:28   中国青年网

在这份“吉林药方”中,备受关注的焦点在于吉林要不要发展现代轻纺这一产业。

林毅夫团队认为,吉林经济结构转型升级的短板,是以纺织服装、家电与消费电子为龙头的轻工业集群和相应商业网络严重缺失。只有等轻纺工业的比重超过重工业之后,轻纺工业以及重工业本身才能够快速发展,整个区域经济才能够充分转轨到比较优势遵循型发展战略上,实现又好又快发展。

这一结论,在经济学界引起了不小的讨论。原银河证券首席策略分析师孙建波认为,东北作为中国的一个地区,要在中国的地区之间,形成高效率的分工。今天的东北,不是上世纪80年代的东南沿海。轻纺等轻工业在我国一些地区已经有了很好的基础,这些对于东北是弱势产业的,在江浙等地已经非常发达,东北再发展这些产业的话,成本会更高,竞争力更弱。

中国人民大学区域与城市经济研究所教授、博士生导师张可云指出,从广义来理解,轻纺工业中的大部分行业属附加值不高的夕阳产业,而且吉林在全国并不具备发展轻纺产业的明显优势。以纺织工业为例,吉林的棉花、羊毛或羊绒、蚕丝、麻类以及化纤等原材料不具有优势,在产品品牌方面也不占明显优势。

“当然,《吉林报告》中所讨论的轻纺产业不仅包括纺织工业,还包括其他行业,但这些行业具有一些共同特点:附加值不高、劳动密集、技术含量不高。发展此类产业是否有利于优化经济结构是令人怀疑的。”张可云认为。

对此,北京大学新结构经济学研究中心研究员、吉林课题研究执行负责人付才辉回应称,《吉林报告》提出要发展轻工业,是根据其劳动力禀赋结构特征来作出决定。吉林省在2016年末有2700万人口,其中16岁至59岁的适龄劳动人口占68.65%、农村人口占比44.03%,这样省情的吉林省,是绕不过大力发展劳动力密集型轻工业阶段的。

付才辉说,以重化工为主导的资本密集型产业对就业的吸纳能力比较弱,大量劳动力不是闲置在农业中,就是游荡在生产率较低的服务业中,或者外出打工。为了解决就业利用劳动力资源禀赋,目前吉林省就需要发展劳动力密集型产业。而且,《吉林报告》中提出的现代轻工不同于传统简单的轻工业,承接江浙轻纺工业转移的方式也需要在转移过程中发挥吉林省装备制造业的比较优势进行技术装备改造以及产品质量升级。这意味着吉林省还可以发挥重工业的基础反哺轻工业,与此同时也促进重工业的发展。

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