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全球央行年会落幕 耶伦怼特朗普导致连任概率下滑

2017-08-29 10:40:31   央广网

而会议从无人问津到声明鹊起,还要归功于2010年伯南克的演说,那次讲话被认为是预示美联储将启动第二轮量化宽松的重要事件,并在当年11月被印证。同年,特里谢严厉警告全球经济失衡,债务存在严重危机。背景正是欧元区债务危机的爆发。伯南克的政策暗示,令市场猛然意识到原来还有这样一个盛会一直以来被忽视。

到2012年,时任美联储主席伯南克在会议上发言,释放采用QE政策信号,会后一个月内美国宣布启动QE3。2014年,现任美联储主席耶伦首次参加大会,当时她表示预计当年10月结束QE,若就业市场进展持续好转,将使加息更快到来,会后美元大涨。同次会议,欧洲央行行长德拉吉警告欧元区通胀预期恶化,释放出强烈的再宽松信号,次年3月欧洲央行开启大规模QE。

可以说由于主要央行行长的固定出席,该会议已被外界认为是央行官员利用市场夏休的机会为新政打下基础,成为投资者们不容错过的重要会议。

美联储主席耶伦的任期将在明年2月结束,她是否能再次得到特朗普总统的任命?市场众说纷纭,有一个大热门——加里·科恩虎视眈眈。加里·科恩今年56岁,曾长期担任高盛总裁,目前担任总统首席经济顾问,特朗普已经表示,他强烈考虑让科恩担任美联储主席这个职位。

这位前高盛总裁能胜任这项工作吗?10多位曾经和科恩一起共事的人士在接受采访时表示,科恩可能会像一只斗牛犬领导着一个由书呆子组成的机构。他多年来在高盛的交易大厅里养成的凶猛个性可能会和那种在慢条斯理、深思熟虑的合作环境下形成的文化发生冲突。2005年离开高盛的前首席信息官迈克尔·迪布诺表示,科恩绝对是一个靠直觉行事的人,咄咄逼人、心直口快。他说:“我不知道科恩能否真正深入地触及到事情本质。”

在高盛,科恩从交易大厅的工作做起,一路晋升到公司的总裁。如果科恩得到美联储主席这份工作,那么他将是自保罗·沃尔克以来第一位没有博士学位的美联储主席,而且他还必须去适应一个运行方式更像大学而不是企业的机构。

美联储每次政策制定不仅要看投票,还要在两天的会议中听取经济学家提出的建议,然后集体作出决定。每一位拥有投票权的成员都有平等的发言权。唯一不同的是,美联储主席可能是这里的精神领袖和公开的形象代言人,美联储真正的权力来自全体成员的共识。

由于分析师们会紧紧抠住每一个字眼不放,美联储主席必须在措辞方面极度地小心谨慎,但这位高盛系的科恩总是喜欢即兴发言。另外美联储理事会有300多位拥有博士学位的经济学家员工,联储主席必须大量阅读他们的学术论文。高盛的前合伙人杰伊·德韦克表示,“我不明白科恩为什么会想要把所有的时间花费在处理枯燥材料的会议上,他对这种东西一向没有耐心。”

高盛,这家最负盛名的美国投行,在全球金融决策层中都有相当的影响力,美国联储12家地区性联邦储备银行中有3位曾就职于高盛,而欧洲央行行长德拉基和英国央行行长马克·卡尼也曾是高盛的高管。

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