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全球央行年会基调平淡 美元空头再度占据上风

2017-08-28 09:45:52   新华网

在上周末举行的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上,美联储主席耶伦并未满足外界有关货币政策的期待,欧洲央行德拉吉也并未像外界所预期的那样出言打压强势欧元。这样的局面令美元空头再度占据上风,美元指数跌至18个月低位,欧元对美元汇率则跳涨至两年多高位。

耶伦在发表演讲时指出,金融危机后出台的监管措施令金融系统韧性增强,且更严格的监管并未阻碍经济增长,但也永远无法确定新的危机不会发生。她当日并未提及货币政策。根据CME集团的FedWatch工具,市场预计今年12月美联储的加息概率已降至40%以下。

欧洲央行方面,德拉吉讲话的基调同样偏平淡。他表示,欧洲央行会非常缓慢地撤出货币刺激措施,但重申应当保持谨慎,要达成通胀目标仍有一段路要走。德拉吉并未提及对欧元走强的担忧。

在此背景下,美元在汇市遭遇抛售。衡量美元对6种主要货币的美元指数上周五盘中触及2016年5月以来最低位92.465,纽约汇市尾盘时下跌约0.8%,报92.54,全周跌幅约为0.9%。

而欧元对美元汇率上周五触及2015年1月以来最高位1.1940,当日涨幅达到1%,为两个月来最佳单日表现。

根据美国商品期货交易委员会最近一次公布的数据,截至22日的当周,美元净空仓从前一周的88.4亿美元增至94亿美元。

法国兴业银行的策略师Kit Juckes在写给上证报记者的一封邮件中指出,估值可能是欧元汇率的最大支撑因素。2015年至2017年,由于欧洲央行实施负利率和资产购买计划,欧元汇率在远低于任何形式的公允价值下方交易。这将利差推到了阻碍外国投资者投资欧元的水平。

“仅仅是政策正常化的想法就足以让一个前瞻性的市场开始将欧元汇率拉回公允价值水平,而当欧洲央行开始执行任何实质紧缩措施时,我们预计欧元对美元汇率将会回到1.25之上。”他表示。

不过,疲弱美元令黄金价格获得提振。纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的12月黄金期价上周五收于每盎司1297.9美元,涨幅为0.46%。而美股三大股指当日涨幅在0.09%至0.17%不等。全周涨幅则在0.6%至0.72%不等。(记者 王宙洁)

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