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央行年会的多空各表

2017-08-29 09:35:50   中国经济网

上周末的全球央行年会,对于市场的波动影响,主要体现在汇市的压美元指数和黄金的异动。汇市美元指数的再次压弱,对应的是风险偏好的平稳,没有体现避险情绪,贵金属的盘中异动和阳线靠稳,则体现的是非空就是多的资产支持心态。对于央行年会这种务虚会,多空各表其实是投机滑头的惯常玩法,但短线的多空各表之后,我们还是要等待本周末的月初数据周的再次检验。

本次央行年会期间的政策支持文献,是加州伯克利的两位学者的论文,他们通过分析认为,在经济疲软阶段和周期内采取财政刺激措施,将有助于改善债务负担,而在经济强势周期才更应该降低财政刺激的力度。这个文献,将为货币宽松极致后,逆周期调节的财政作用提供理论依据,央行欢迎,政府也更容易摆脱舆论压力,投机市场可能也欢迎。

国内本周初的股商联动,也开始各说各话的表现。商品市场工系人气品种的减仓兑现温和延续,但上升通道都还没有破坏,行情在排除v型逆转的情况下,通常的模式以上升通道逐步转为减仓横向振荡为主,横向振荡的平稳能力,则是后续品种资金偏好的一个再确认和强弱检验过程。横向振荡的平台持续一段时间后,期现两端的支持结构是否开始进一步减弱,这才谈得上人气氛围的变化考虑。

上周末的另一个关注的农系线索解读是,美豆的专业期刊田间巡查的初步结果预估提示,新作的单产预估将从49.4下修到48.5,同时产量预估也温和下修,但新作的总产将仍创出纪录峰值的43.31蒲式耳。近期虽然炒天气的氛围不强,但投资者普遍倾向于总产会下修至持平去年峰值或略低水平。对应美豆指数短线横盘之后的弱反弹倾向继续延续。

对于这样的田间巡查的预估,如何做理性评估反应?美豆的总产至少需要在小数点的第一位低于去年的纪录峰值,才敢好意思说偏多的线索,其借口可以是,哪怕今年播种面积增加那么多,哪怕今年的农业科技进步进一步显现效果,但总产量也再难提高了,所以带来美豆系的供应周期进入尾声的遐想。对应在中期形态低点的考验上,倾向于美豆指数的906美分仍会不破不立,破了之后对应2015年中期底部平台,二次中期盘底确认,技术上也合理;相对乐观的观点则认为今年可能906这个中期低点都还破不了,这样的话,好处是下行风险更加有限,坏处是反弹空间也可能更加有限,投机客更加无趣了。如果是后一种情况下,天气炒作兑现之后的丰产准备兑现阶段,粕类只能在豆粕期权上去玩玩卖期权,卖看涨和卖看跌,先卖两个月期权再说了。

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