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中国经济新旧增长动力的转换

2017-08-18 09:22:19   中国青年网

我国经济增长进入新旧动力转换期

第一个问题是供需两侧结构性失衡,新旧增长动力难以有效接续。当前,我国需求侧和供给侧均面临着严峻的结构性失衡矛盾。从需求侧来看,投资和出口对经济增长的带动作用在不断下降,而消费对经济增长的积极作用受到体制的严重约束。一是投资空间在收窄,投资边际效益下降,依靠投资拉动经济增长的作用在明显减弱。经过多年持续大规模公共基础设施建设,机场、铁路、公路、水电气网等一大批公共基础设施供给能力已经形成,而且供给水平大都达到世界一流水平。此时,公共投资空间在变小,单位投资带来的GDP贡献作用在下降。二是外需萎缩对出口导向型经济带来了严重打击。这几年,国际环境发生了深刻变化,使得这种发展模式开始失灵,中国遇到了发展难题,中低端产业外需疲软供给替代形成“挤出效应”,中高端产业技术制约形成天花板“高压效应”。三是有效消费需求不足,成为当前需求结构性矛盾的关键所在。从不同收入阶层分析,中低收入人群对中低端产品有很大的消费潜能,但由于收入支撑乏力和社会保障不足,无法顺畅转化为有效需求;中高收入群体对于高附加值、高端产品有明显消费能力,但国内产业结构和产品供给结构升级缓慢,无法满足他们的新需要,造成中高收入群体消费潜力受到抑制,迫使部分收入转化为储蓄。

需求侧产生的结构性矛盾,实质上是由体制机制改革滞后造成的。比如,政府、企业在国民收入初次分配中占比高,比例上升快,在再次收入分配中资源相对集中用于公共投资和产业投资方面。同时,在阶层之间收入分配政策不到位,引起社会储蓄快于消费增长。从2000年到2016年我国社会消费品零售总额增长了7.5倍,而人民币储蓄总额增长了11.4倍。

从供给侧来看,传统、低端产业在衰退,新兴产业成长缓慢,新旧产业增长动力不能有效接续。当前,我国经济增长遇到的关键难题是,传统、低端产业快速衰退留下的产业空间,新兴产业不能及时填补,形成了经济增长的“空心区”。产品供给结构不能适应市场需求结构变化,中低端产品和低技术含量、低附加值产品供大于求,高技术、高附加值产品及服务供给面临明显供给短缺。

第二个问题是制度性交易成本居高不下,制约产业转型升级。在新旧增长动力转换中,制度性交易成本高低是影响动力转换速度的关键因素。我国基础性制度供给中一些深层次结构性矛盾仍然突出,影响新旧增长动力转换。这使得企业参与市场竞争的制度性成本居高不下、显性隐性费用多等问题突出。因体制机制改革滞后而造成的制度交易成本,成为企业经营的系统性梗阻,对产业结构转型和创新驱动形成了瓶颈制约,一定程度上弱化了产业供给能力的转换和企业微观创新活力的提升。

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