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日本经济迎来2年内最快增长 专家称动力难维系

2017-08-16 12:06:40   央广网

央广网北京8月16日消息(记者张奥 实习记者于洋)据经济之声《天下公司》报道,日本经济增长迎来了两年来的新高,据日本内阁府发布的数据显示,由于个人消费和企业投资增长强劲,今年第二季度日本GDP按年率计算增长4%,为2015年第一季度以来最快增速。

这是日本经济连续6个季度保持扩张,为2006年以来日本经济最长扩张期。日本经济增长动力何在?日本企业(中国)研究院执行院长陈言认为:“进入2017年以后,国际经济局势发生了比较大的变化,不仅日本如此,美国、中国、欧洲很多国家在经济上都取得了一定的成绩,在这种情况下,日本的经济增加到4%的GDP增长率不足为奇。拉动GDP一个最重要的因素是设备投资,也就是固定资产投资。日本市场在不断减小,人口在老龄化,日本国内市场不太存在旺盛的状态,虽然很有钱,但是并没有在设备投资上拿出较多的资金来。之所以出现这样好的强势恢复状态,是因为日元一定程度的下滑,国外投资资本回收过程中,换算成日元以后就出现一定的溢价,在这种情况下,也让日本的大企业在股票市场上的状况比较好,从外面进入到日本的钱也多了一些,这也给日本的GDP增长起到一定的拉动作用。但这可能不会持续很长时间,日本GDP的增长可能会在第三季度的时候出现下滑。”

此前有统计,日本员工的工资实现了6年来首次实现正增长。在陈言看来,这可能还谈不上上涨。“中小企业的员工工资并没有恢复起来,大企业的工资也没有恢复,今年的奖金能够提升一点,基本工资上没有较大的涨幅。在泡沫经济时候,日本的工资长得很快,24-25年期间,几乎工资的涨幅在1%-3%左右。安倍政权也反复跟企业说,希望企业给员工提工资。但是据我所知,从企业里拿到提升工资的机会并不是很多。”

首相安倍晋三因为“森友学园”事件、“加计学园”问题、防卫省“瞒报门”等一系列丑闻支持率不断跳水,近期他完成内阁的改组,19名内阁成员换了14个,希望摆脱信任危机。他在经济上的安倍经济学是否让百姓尝到了甜头?对此,陈言称:“2012年安倍晋三上台的时候提出了一个非常响亮的口号,安倍经济学。他说要给日本的经济增长带来一个很大的机会。四年零八个月过去了,现在有一个小幅的增长,但实际与安倍当时设想的状况还有很大差距。安倍在过去的四年多时间里,虽然打出了安倍经济学的旗号,但并没有在经济复苏上做出巨大的努力,他做得更多的是政治上的举动,比如成立战争法、保密法、修宪等。民众对安倍的支持率也有比较大的下滑,这时安倍重新说会认真做经济,但是安倍做经济的时候能拿出什么样的经济政策?目前还看不到。美国、德国、欧洲其它国家甚至东南亚国家都扩大了和中国的贸易,从而来提升自己国家GDP的增长,中国和日本在贸易方面出现了下滑,特别是安倍上台以后,这和安倍对华的外交政策有很大关系。如果使用好中国市场,日本经济也有很快复苏的机会,但是安倍放弃了这个机会。”

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