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中国经济转型进展令人瞩目(中国经济·世界贡献)

2017-08-16 06:17:28   中国青年网

8月15日,国际货币基金组织(IMF)正式发布2017年中国“第四条款磋商”报告。“第四条款磋商”是IMF经济学家每年对成员国经济表现和宏观政策的例行判断与评估。IMF认为,中国经济继续转向更可持续的增长路径,改革在广泛的领域取得进展,中国经济持续强劲增长为全球需求提供了重要支持。

“中国经济的发展将继续推动全球经济增长。”今年中国项目报告负责人之一、IMF亚洲及太平洋部助理主任詹姆斯·丹尼尔近日在接受本报记者采访时表示,尽管中国经济增速与前几年相比有所放缓,但中国经济规模和互联性在增加。这不仅反映了中国经济在全球经济中所占比重的上升,也反映在许多其他方面,例如,其他国家对中国金融领域投资增长,中国在其他国家的基础设施建设上投资更多,中国在国际货币基金组织等全球金融机构中扮演着越来越重要的角色。

随着中国经济转型,内需对拉动经济增长的作用日益明显。今年上半年,消费对中国经济增长的贡献率达63.4%。IMF称赞中国政府在推动中国经济向服务和消费转型、实现经济再平衡方面持续取得进展,并对国企绩效改善表示欢迎,对中国政府加大关注降低金融稳定风险表示赞赏。对于中国经济转型升级,詹姆斯·丹尼尔认为,中国经济转型升级确实取得了令人瞩目的进展,中国政府将继续朝着更加可持续的方向发展推进经济再平衡,如果这种再平衡取得成功,世界经济将整体受益。

IMF预计中国今年将保持在6.7%的强劲水平,这是IMF今年第三次上调中国2017年经济增长预期,这得益于去年政策支持形成的增长势头、外部需求的加强以及国内改革的进展。丹尼尔认为,对2017年的增长预测反映了今年上半年的强劲增长和国际贸易的回暖,这也反映了就业、工资和私人消费的强劲增长。

IMF注意到近期中国的经济活动继续巩固,认为这是中国政府加快推进必要改革、更多关注增长质量和可持续性的时机。IMF注意到,中国经常账户顺差占国内生产总值的比重2016年降至1.7%,预计今年降至1.4%。这也意味着中国经济已日趋远离出口驱动的旧模式。丹尼尔认为,“中国的政策制定者也可以通过减少中国的贸易壁垒,寻求‘双赢’解决贸易摩擦,来帮助全球经济增长。”

对于中国如何在经济再平衡过程中保持可持续发展,丹尼尔建议,中国经济可以更加关注增长质量和可持续性,具体而言,可以增加社会支出,进一步促进消费,向私营部门开放更多领域,进一步激发市场活力。

在中国经济与世界经济的关系方面,丹尼尔认为,即使中期增长率有所降低,中国仍将是全球经济增长的支柱。事实上,长远来看,中国在全球经济中的作用将增加。“一带一路”倡议还可以促进贸易、投资和金融领域的跨国合作,改善地区基础设施建设,促进互联互通。

(本报华盛顿8月15日电)

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