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天津港“8·12”事故应急合作网络与协同应对

2017-08-17 13:11:38   中国青年网

该网络中网络管理组织高中介性的形成可能与其自身有较多应急资源有关,对这一推测的证实需利用程度中心度进行进一步测量。程度中心度衡量网络中某节点与其他节点进行直接交互的能力。数值越大,表明该组织与网络中其他组织间的直接交互越多,但网络内部各节点的程度中心度差值过大则表示权力或资源过度集中。测量结果显示,网络管理组织(党中央国务院和天津市委市政府)的程度中心度为38.10,而网络中一般组织的数值大致落在4.76至14.29之间。证实网络中的权力和资源集中于网络管理组织,并且它们在该网络中参与度最高、重要性最强。如果排除资料收集不全等因素,上述结果一定程度上反映了地方区委区政府在应急协作中对网络管理组织有较多依赖。

识别网络中关键成员除依据点的程度中心度外还有一项指标:特征向量中心度。特征向量中心度是通过衡量成员与网络中最核心成员的关系亲疏来评判该成员在网络中的位置和对其他成员的影响力。数值越 大,表示该组织融入网络核心圈的程度越高,相应地也越具影响力。根据测量结果,网络管理组织(党中央国务院和天津市委市政府)的数值为65.31和67.74,远超过网络中一般组织。结合各节点的程度中心度测量结果来看,发现除两个网络管理组织外,公安部、环保部、国家卫生计生委、滨海新区区委区政府在网络中也具有较高重要性和较强影响力,将他们视为实际状态下应急网络中的关键成员。网络中各点在特征向量中心度上反映出的较大差距,推测与占据了信息优势的网络管理组织和关键成员间互动密切,一般组织少有机会接触关键信息而更倾向于执行决策。

(三)应急合作网络协同应对绩效测量

利用点的中心度指标评估所得的实际与目标状态下网络协作表现的差异如表5所示。对比发现,预案设定的危险化学品生产事故应急网络应包含的成员不完全一致(表5中无对应结果的行动者),网络管理组织外的其他网络关键成员构成也不相同。且目标值的测算结果显示,生产事故应急网络中,国务院安委会是最核心的网络管理组织,网络内所有行动者掌握的事故处置和救援关键信息均须传送给它,但在天津港“8·12”事故实际应急网络中国务院安委会的重要性和独立性并没有得到凸显。

各成员投入网络协作的程度是衡量网络协作绩效的重要指标,通过点的程度中心度测量。结果显示,只有国务院、公安部、环保部、天津市环保局、天津市安全生产监管局等成员的表现达到目标值(无对应值的除外)。程度中心度未达标的网络成员,如天津市政府等,它们与所有应进行互动的行动者间的联络。此外,天津市政府的中介中心度值也远落后于目标值,这意味着在大量依赖其获取信息的行动者间很可能出现了信息交换失灵,进而影响地方应急响应和网络合作协同应对的成效。

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