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科斯伍德业绩承诺兑现难

2017-08-11 18:06:45   中国经济网

年报数据显示,2015年和2016年,龙门教育封闭式培训营业收入分别为1.24亿元和1.8亿元,占同期营业总收入的比重分别为82.12%和74.69%。

直到2016年,龙门教育K12课外辅导业务营业收入仅为2100万元,占当期营业总收入的8.71%。

按照评估机构预测,2017-2019年,K12课外培训业务将逐步顶替全封闭式培训业务,成为公司业绩的重要支撑。

但与封闭式培训不同的是,K12课外培训行业竞争激烈,盈利水平明显偏低。

根据年报介绍,龙门教育的K12课外培训业务主要是指面向中小学生提供课外辅导服务,其模式主要是开设一对一教学和小班教学。本次收购草案中,龙门教育将学大教育、京翰英才列为可比对象。

2014年和2015年,学大教育实现的营业收入金额分别为21.62亿元和22.83亿元,但同期,公司净利润分别为-6288万元和-2750万元。

学大教育在收购方案中指出,一对一教学业务教师资源投入较大,毛利率也相对较低,随着培训行业近年来各类机构层出不穷,市场竞争压力不断上升,公司面临着较为激烈的市场竞争。

与学大教育类似,京翰英才经营业绩同样较为糟糕。2014年,京翰英才净利润金额为-4873万元。

财务数据显示,2014年和2015年,龙文教育分别实现营业收入7.54亿元和7.01亿元,实现净利润4225万元和8725万元。

根据当初签订的业绩补偿协议,2016年,龙文教育预期实现的扣非后净利润应不低于1亿元。

但年报数据显示,2016年,龙文教育实现的扣非后净利润仅为6642万元,与业绩承诺数差额为3392万元,完成率仅为66.19%。

在业绩说明公告中,勤上光电表示,面对竞争激烈的课外辅导市场,龙文教育对单点收入和课时单价的提高未能弥补教学点数量减少的影响。

令人较为担忧的是,伴随K12课外培训业务规模的扩大,龙门教育还能否一直保持此前的利润率水平?

更为值得思考的是,在采用收益法评估过程中,假设评估基准日后龙门教育在现有管理方式和管理水平的基础上,经营范围、方式与目前保持一致是本次评估的一个重要前提条件。

面对龙门教育经营范围和方式即将发生的改变,公司目前的估值水平还是否客观合理?

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