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科斯伍德业绩承诺兑现难

2017-08-11 18:06:45   中国经济网

年报数据显示,2014年,龙门教育学生总人数为3046人,2015年升至7907人,较2014年增长159.59%。

然而,一个令人不解的现象是,本次收购草案中,龙门教育披露的培训人数与年报数据差异巨大。

收购草案显示,2015年,龙门教育全封闭教育的学生总数为9021人,较年报中增加1114人,增幅为14.09%。

除学生总人数存有差异,龙门教育披露的财务数据差异同样值得关注。

根据收购草案,2015年和2016年,龙门教育的营业收入分别为1.51亿元和2.41亿元,归属于母公司所有者的净利润分别约为5183万元和6989万元。

但新三板挂牌时的年报数据显示,2015年和2016年,龙门教育的归属净利润分别为4892万元和7029万元。

与年报数据相比,本次收购草案中,龙门教育2015年净利润增加291万元,增幅5.95%;2016年,公司净利润减少40万元,降幅0.57%。

其中,公司2015年财务数据由中兴财光华会计师事务所审计,2016年则是由中兴华会计师事务所审计,而本次收购聘请的审计机构为立信会计师事务所。

同一公司、同一年度,由于审计机构不同,结果却不尽相同,龙门教育信披数据差异的背后是何原因?

经营前景不明

本次收购中评估机构采用收益法对龙门教育进行评估,公司未来的预期收益成为评判估值合理性的重要指标。

根据业绩补偿协议,利润补偿责任人承诺,2017年至2019年,龙门教育实现的净利润(指扣除非经常性损益前后孰低的归属于母公司普通股股东的净利润)分别不低于人民币1亿元、1.3亿元和1.6亿元。

评估机构在评估报告中预测,2017-2019年,龙门教育的预期营业收入金额分别为4.43亿元、6.09亿元和7.46亿元。以业绩承诺计算,2017-2019年,龙门教育的预期净利率分别约为22.57%、21.35%和21.44%。

财务数据显示,2016年,龙门教育净利率为28.81%,如果公司能够保持原有的业务状态,完成业绩承诺似乎并非难事。

但值得关注的是,根据评估机构预测,2017年3-12月、2018年和2019年,龙门教育K12课外培训务预期营业收入金额分别为1.44亿元、2.76亿元和3.67亿元,占预期营业收入的比重分别为32.51%、45.32%和49.2%。

在此之前,全封闭式培训是龙门教育的主要利润来源。根据收购草案,龙门教育主营业务共分为全封闭中高考补习培训、K12课外培训、教学辅助软件研发与销售三大部分。

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