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警惕虚拟货币泡沫 投资切忌盲目与从众
2017-09-14 06:56:20 中国经济网
“虚拟货币可以匿名、不受监管”是虚拟货币的第三个特点,但和安全性问题一样,投资者不一定真懂虚拟货币是否可以完全无法追踪。退一步说,就算某种货币需要匿名、不需要监管,虚拟货币的匿名性也不一定比黄金和钻石更好。
更重要的是,为什么那些来源正当的钱,需要规避监管呢?有多少人又需要规避监管,又是什么样的人最需要规避监管呢?这些问题都值得思考。
最近几年,国际上形形色色的犯罪,地下军火交易、人口贩卖、计算机病毒勒索,有很多是通过新兴的虚拟货币完成的。一个健康的社会,并不需要发展这种规避监管的交易手段,也没有一个负责任的政府会长期容忍不受监管的地下金钱交易。
对于虚拟货币的价值,沃伦·巴菲特曾经直言不讳地警告,投资者应离它们越远越好,这只不过是一场海市蜃楼而已。没有实际使用价值,实际总量无限且无人控制,价格的全部决定因素既不来自供需,也不来自政府法规,只是来自下一个投资者出价高低的虚拟货币,从长期来看,只能成为下一个经典的金融泡沫。任何一个金融泡沫,都一定有破裂的一天。
当然,长期的泡沫属性,并不会决定短期的价格波动,金融泡沫的长期必然破裂性,也完全无法解释它自己的短期价格涨跌。虚拟货币之火还能烧多久,谁也无法预测。
任何没有长期意义的短期投机行为,都无异于剜肉补疮、饮鸩止渴。也许有一天,当虚拟货币泡沫完全破裂之时,投资者真正剩下的,只是一串计算机里毫无用处的代码。而这,才是虚拟货币的真实本质。(原文来源:经济日报 作者:信达证券首席策略分析师 陈嘉禾)
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