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警惕虚拟货币泡沫 投资切忌盲目与从众

2017-09-14 06:56:20   中国经济网

虚拟货币并不是真正的货币。对于真正的货币或者有货币属性的东西来说,其价值的保障无外乎来自于两个方面:或是强大的国家政权保障与背书,或是普遍的民众使用性与难以替代性。人民币、美元、欧元、英镑等法定货币属于前一种,复制这类货币或者类似的货币会遭受法律制裁;黄金、白银、宝石属于后一种,它们要么光彩夺目、要么数量稀少并且有不可替代的使用价值、要么两者兼而有之。

问题是,虚拟货币并不具备以上任何一种资质。首先,抄袭一种虚拟货币、开发出一个极为类似的虚拟货币,不会遭到任何法律的惩罚;其次,虚拟货币并不具有实际使用价值。黄金、白银和钻石可以用来装饰,但你无法把一串代码带在脖子或手腕上,用来装点外表、吸引人们的注意。

既无国家力量背书,也无实际使用价值,更无实际供应限制,虚拟货币的价格只能通过一种方式来体现,就是下一个接盘者愿意出的价格。价格高低完全由下一个接盘者的出价来决定的金融现象,都可以用两个字来清晰描述——泡沫。

那些所谓的价格基础都由下一个接盘者愿意出的价格决定的东西,一旦击鼓传花结束,不再有投资者接盘,它们就会回归自己的本源,甚至变得一文不值。

也就是说,郁金香泡沫破裂以后,投资者就会只剩下一盆花;股票市场泡沫破裂以后,投资者会剩下只有原来价格几分之一的公司股权(如果没有因为杠杆交易而爆仓的话);房地产泡沫破裂以后,投资者就会剩下一堆水泥房子;虚拟货币泡沫一旦破裂,投资者也就只会剩下一大串代码。

投资切忌盲目与从众

有人也许会问,虚拟货币不是解决了很多现实社会欠缺的东西,给了人们更好的金融手段吗?

“去中心化,特别安全”是虚拟货币给投资者的第一印象,但是计算机系统里到底有多少漏洞,连最权威的电脑专家都无法完全搞清楚,对于广大普通投资者来说,又如何有能力鉴别这句话的真伪呢?

事实上,最近几年,关于虚拟货币被盗、交易平台被黑的新闻屡见报端,所谓的“去中心化”并没有保障投资者和投资平台的安全。漏洞究竟出在哪里,那些买卖虚拟货币的普通投资者很难搞清楚。

“虚拟货币可以在全球自由流通”是虚拟货币的第二个特点,但在美元、英镑、欧元、人民币等法定货币广泛流通的背景下,作为一种新的全球流通手段,究竟有多少意义,值得考量。正如沃伦·巴菲特所说,为什么一种财富的支付手段需要有价值呢?人们用支票支付账款,难道支票就应该因此有价值吗?

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