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通胀仍处高位 英央行料将按兵不动
2017-09-12 17:03:18 中国经济网
据英国工程雇主联合会(EEF)和会计师事务所BDO的报告显示,虽然英国制造商今年迄今为止未能对官方的经济增长率指标做出贡献,但下半年制造业看来有望实现更强劲的增长。9月5日的行业调查显示,尽管国内前景不佳,但受欧洲经济复苏的推动,英国反映产出和订单上升的制造商比例达到至少20年来的最高。五分之三的英国制造商表示,英国最大出口市场——欧盟的需求正面。
三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)外汇分析师Lee Hardman也表示,英国经济增长趋稳的表现,应会给英国央行更大的信心,英国经济增速自“脱欧”公投以来仍守得相当不错。预期英国央行本周将重申,市场低估了未来几年可能升息的幅度,不过他认为,央行可能不会直接暗示今年即将升息。
此外,8月份英国央行/TNS调查显示,英国公众预计未来两年通胀将持稳于显著高于英国央行通胀目标的2%水平。未来一年公众通胀预期为2.8%,未来两年通胀预期为2.7%。这一预测与5月份相比几无变化,当时两者分别为2.8%和2.8%。因广义通胀已上升,英国央行调查情况是公众通胀预期接近英国央行自己的预测。英国央行在8月份的通胀报告中曾预测今年第四季度广义CPI通胀将会2.75%见顶,然后下降并在未来三年预测期内维持在2%目标上方。
英国高企于2%以上的通胀水平对央行已构成挑战,而长期季度经济增长趋势水平却不理想。桑德斯表示,混乱“脱欧”的风险并不意味着英国央行应该维持利率在记录低点,央行可能会面临未来不得不匆忙大幅升息的风险,恐将损及经济增长。
一些分析师以及交易员认为,此次会议可能显示央行益发担心弱势英镑对通胀率的影响。
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