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外媒:美元下跌的四大理由是否成立?

2017-09-12 17:03:15   新华网

反驳四:特朗普将一事无成?

在这大半年中,美国市场经历了从“特朗普看多”到“特朗普看空”的巨大转变,美元指数早已回吐特朗普胜选后的全部涨幅还不止。我们在去年12月28日的FT中文网专栏文章《特朗普会带来强美元吗?》中指出,特朗普无法带来强美元,但在当前时点,我们对特朗普和美元并不过度悲观。

后期非常值得关注的就是特朗普的企业税改。企业所得税在美国联邦财政收入中只占很小的比重,所以企业税改最有可能取得进展。企业税改是很多美国企业家和投资人翘首以盼的政策,可能不仅会促进国内投资,还会带来很多海外投资,其影响深远,也不一定会带来很大财政负担。

今年以来,特朗普屡遭挫折,不仅其最希望完成的医改方案被否决,还因保护主义和种族主义而四处树敌、众叛亲离。但这也未尝不是转机。特朗普在医改问题上的失势,不仅导致他个人能力遭受质疑,也令共和党的声誉受损。在媒体口诛笔伐之下,共和党也有了紧迫感。加之明年是美国的中期选举,如果没能拿出有力政绩,共和党可能会丢掉两院控制权。因此,后期国会可能在企业税改和债务上限等问题上设置较少的阻碍。我们可以对企业税改抱有更多信心,若能在年内落实,美元还有上涨空间。

综上所述,我们反对美联储加息美元反而可能走弱的判断,历史上的几次背离均为特殊情况,不能以偏概全;我们反对美国经济周期见顶的判断,美国经济并不弱,且周期规律显示美国复苏周期还能持续;我们反对风险偏好上升导致美元下跌的判断,因为美元的避险属性已经较弱,且美元和美债收益率近年走势趋同,也驳斥了避险因素驱动美元的说法;我们反对特朗普一事无成的判断,对其企业税改,可以抱有更高期待。一言以蔽之,目前市场上对美元的看法可能过度悲观了,美元已处短期底部,年内大概率会回升。

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