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人民币对美元升对欧元降 美元弱势造就持续反弹?

2017-09-09 07:56:44   新华网

  原标题  人民币对美元升对欧元降

人民币对美元中间价持续调升。中国外汇交易中心的数据显示,9月8日,人民币对美元中间价报6.5032,上调237点,创下去年5月12日以来新高。这已经是连续第十日的上涨。根据中国外汇交易中心的数据,8月25日,人民币对美元中间价由6.6525回调至6.6579,此后便一直调升。

据中国货币网,1月3日以来,人民币对美元中间价已经升值了6.42%。也就是说,如今换100万美元需准备650万左右的人民币,而年前要准备694万左右。

受利好消息影响,昨日晨间航运、出境旅游等板块亦一度走强。截至收盘,中国国航现报9.31,上涨2.42%。

然而,昨日人民币对欧元中间价报7.8013,较前一个交易日下调了172点。

  美元的弱势造就人民币持续反弹?

人民币对美元持续上涨,在首创证券研究发展部总经理王剑辉看来,按影响因素权重划分,有大概四成归因人民币的内在因素,另外六成是美元本身弱势造成的。

“市场对特朗普上台后美国新政府的政策预期有些弱化,一些措施如医保法案遭受挫折。同时,美国财政前景也不是特别乐观,财政的上限刚刚通过,意味着更多赤字,也意味着美元未来面临更多的中长期压力。此外,美联储的紧缩动作也比市场预期节奏要慢,到现在缩表还没出台,美元要承受一定阶段性压力。”王剑辉认为,美元的弱势造就人民币持续反弹。

而关于人民币走强的原因,王剑辉指出,包括国内经济企稳、央行对于外汇的管理措施等因素,连续7个月的外汇储备持续回升,使得对人民币预期出现阶段性逆转。另外,人民币近期在国际贸易中使用的比例也显著提升,人民币国际化前景改善,也是支持人民币走强的因素。王剑辉举例,上述由4月份只占1.6%排名第七,上升到7月份的第五,占比上升到2%。

前海开源基金董事总经理杨德龙认为,主要原因是国内经济增速超预期,经济增长是人民币走强的最根本因素。此外,美元持续调整,今年以来美元指数大幅下挫,美元调整也导致其他货币相对美元上涨。

金融分析师肖磊则表示,人民币升值很大原因是外部性因素。“美元对非美货币持续走低,尤其是对欧元的大幅走低,直接拉升了人民币、日元、英镑等汇率,而美元的弱势,一个是特朗普改革政策预期的落空,一个是美国本身需要弱势美元来推升通胀,美联储年内加息的预期已大降。”

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