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美元震荡走低 加元短线狂涨

2017-09-08 07:32:05   中国经济网

美联储副主席费希尔本周提前递交了辞呈,并将在10月中旬生效。费希尔的离去给了美国总统特朗普影响美联储的机会,让他能比预期更早开始重塑美联储高层。不过,费希尔辞职的同时也令美国长期货币政策前景蒙阴,美元因此震荡走弱。

现年73岁的费希尔此前由奥巴马在2014年任命为美联储副主席,任期原定将在2018年6月份到期。费希尔在给特朗普的辞职信中要求在10月13日前后离职,但他仍将参加本月稍晚举行的联邦公开市场委员会的会议。

费希尔是美国财经界元老级人物。他的履历表包括前花旗集团副董事长、前国际货币基金组织第一副总裁、前世界银行首席经济学家。他还曾在2005至2013年间任以色列央行行长,在麻省理工学院当过20多年的教授,影响了几代经济学家,其中包括前美联储主席伯南克以及现任欧洲央行行长德拉基。

事实上,美联储观察人士之前就已经预计费希尔会离职,但没有预料到他会在任期还有8个月的时候就辞职。当前美国通胀虽然低于预期,但美联储内部对于今年是否还有必要再加息一次仍有意见分歧,费希尔的辞职意味着美联储将失去一个有影响力的声音。而且特朗普政府希望在一些金融监管规定上走回头路,但费希尔却一直在竭力倡导维护后危机时期的金融监管体系。

正如美联储的决策者们在6月份时预测的那样,他们将在9月19日至20日的会议上宣布缩减资产负债表的时间表,虽然他们仍在辩论年内是否还有必要再加息一次,但9月会议上预计将保持利率不变。值得注意的是,费希尔的辞职意味着美联储七个理事职位将有四个空缺。特朗普已经提名了一名小布什总统时期的财政部高级官员夸尔斯担任理事,主管监管。夸尔斯的提名目前仍有待参议院的确认。另外,美联储主席耶伦的任期将在明年2月份到期。特朗普之前曾说过他在考虑提名耶伦的第二个任期,不过白宫同时也在考虑其他的候选人。

美元指数短线逐步震荡走低。从日线图上看,此前价格创新低时将91.85的大级别低点支撑刺破,但并未能站稳,后市面临继续上攻风险。再看4小时图,此前的盘整走势告一段落,多头动能迟迟未能再度爆发。短线均线系统被反复穿越,最近美元指数的主趋势转换频繁,目前操作难度较大,需根据各非美货币的强弱分别决定。

本周作为“超级央行周”还是有重大意外。市场普遍预期加拿大央行将维持利率不变,谁料其宣布加息25个基点至1.00%,加元短线狂涨超过200点,刷新两年以来的高位。加拿大央行的行动出乎市场意料,早前数据调查只有极少机构预测本次加拿大央行会加息。所以这次加息令75%的加元投资者猝不及防,并触发大量的止损订单,导致加元走出1分钟大涨近300点的行情。美元兑加元走出了2016年3月最疯狂的单日行情,目前已跌至两年来低位。加拿大两年期国债收益率升至1.45%,刷新2012年4月以来的新高。

加拿大央行在货币政策声明中称,国内通胀仍然低于2%,但已经很大程度上处于预料之中,整体CPI和核心通胀指标都略微上扬。该声明还指出,加拿大经济更加强劲并超乎预期,这能保证央行撤出已经实施的部分货币刺激措施。加拿大央行表示,未来货币政策考量不会是预设模式,行动将受数据和金融市场形势指引,这两方面因素体现出通胀前景。

在加拿大央行决议之前,根据对经济学家的调查,加拿大央行本次加息的可能性相当小,但与此形成对比,金融市场对于加拿大央行加息的预期却相当高涨,甚至一度超过50%。本周加拿大央行的意外加息,也是年内第二次。加拿大央行在今年7月祭出近七年来首次加息举措。加拿大央行表示,鉴于二季度国内生产总值环比年率增长强于预期,因此加息是有根据的,但称未来行动并未预先决定,要看数据和市场形势的指引。市场目前将观察经济数据以及加拿大央行行长波洛兹定于9月27日的讲话,预计他在讲话中将会提供最新经济形势说明。

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