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人民币又涨了,我换的美元怎么办?

2017-09-11 07:42:41   新华网

人民币又双叒叕涨了。

上周五,人民币对美元汇率中间价调升237个基点,报6.5032,为去年5月12日以来新高,且为有记录来第二次连升10日。在岸和离岸人民币则双双大涨。离岸人民币一日内连破6.48、6.47、6.46、6.45四大关口,升至6.4488;在岸人民币对美元更是连破6.49、6.48、6.47、6.46、6.45、6.44六大关口,最高升至6.4345,随后有所回落,官方收盘价报6.4617,为2015年12月15日以来收盘新高。在岸人民币一日内涨近600点,10天内暴涨了2100点。延续8月底以来的强劲升势,人民币9月前六个交易日内最大涨幅超过2.5%。

人民币这种涨势,据说空头已经开始怀疑人生了。而在去年底今年初因为担心人民币“破七”而换了不少美元的人,也感受到了“深深的伤害”。

央行规定,每个人的换汇额度是5万美元,按照今年年初6.95的汇率,换5万美元需要34.75万人民币,现在则只需要32.6万人民币。也就是说,8个多月时间,这笔钱就亏了2.15万元人民币。这还只是理论上的,实际上亏得更多。

首先,在银行换外汇的时候会有买卖的差价,如果年初换的美元现在换回人民币,损失一定超过2.15万。其次,如果当时没有换美元,而是把这将近35万元的人民币买了理财产品,即使按比较保守的年化收益率4%计算,这八个月收益大约9300元,一亏一赚就差了3万多。就更别说今年来股市的行情不错,要是年初时选了只不错的基金或者股票,这损失会有多少了。

另外,去年底人民币一路贬值、很多人开始考虑资产配置的时候,就有观点建议可以买些黄金保值。那么黄金今年来表现怎么样呢?今年初国际金价大约在1180美元/盎司,最新价格则已经突破了1350美元,今年涨了约14%。

说到这里,恐怕没人能求出年初换美元那些人的心理阴影面积了。

那么问题来了,人民币接下来还会再涨吗?换了的美元怎么办?还有一些人在犹豫:“现在是不是该换点美元了?”

对于人民币接下来的走势,市场上比较主流的观点是:短期看,人民币对美元可能还有一定升值空间;长期看,人民币汇率双向波动成为“常态化”,不会出现以往的单边升值或贬值的态势,而美元走向仍是影响人民币汇率的主要因素。

对于普通投资者来说,现在换美元肯定不是好时机,相反可以考虑人民币升值带来的一些投资机会。比如股市,上周,人民币升值概念股就明显走强,旅游、航空运输、石油化工、造纸等受益概念股纷纷上涨。

还有业内人士建议适当增加黄金在资产配置中的比重。因为美元指数与黄金价格成反向走势,如果美元继续向下,黄金价格自然向上。

对于手里持有美元的人,如果不是很多,要么就当成一种资产配置,要么就出国旅游时花吧。王莉

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