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美打响对华“贸易战”第一枪?谁更受伤?

2017-08-22 07:35:40   中国网

301条款分为“普遍”和“超级”两种做法。超级301条款要求美国政府一揽子调查解决另一国整体对美出口的贸易壁垒问题,常被称为贸易领域的“核武器”。

上世纪八九十年代,面对市场遭到日本产品的蚕食,美国曾启用“超级”301条款。1989年,美国贸易代表办公室认为日本在计算机、卫星、林产品方面封闭市场,迫使日本开放相应的国内市场。1994年,对日本产品进入美国征收惩罚性关税,制裁措施延至1997年。

日本在出口被封堵的情况下,实行了错误的国内政策,导致国内地产和股市泡沫破裂,经济遭到重创,至今未恢复元气。

对华“301调查”伤害有多大?美国比中国更受打击

美国发动对华“301调查”,伤害到底有多大?答案是:对中国造成的冲击不会太大,美国反而会更受打击。

外界分析认为,美国对华发起“301调查”,其潜台词在于美国有可能将中国的贸易行为视作“非公平”与“不合理”,从而对中国实施征税、限制进口等单边贸易制裁。

然而,虽然美国市场对中国出口商而言仍然很重要,但伴随着中国经济增长模式从出口和投资转向更依赖服务和消费,美国市场对中国经济增长的相对重要性将继续缩小。因此即便美国实施贸易制裁措施,对中国造成的冲击也不会太大。

实际上,在中美经贸合作中,美方是受益的。即便是在美方强调的对华贸易逆差上,也是贸易顺差反映在中国,但利益顺差在美国,总体上双方互利共赢。

据中方统计,中国货物贸易顺差的59%来自外资企业,61%来自加工贸易。中国从加工贸易中只赚取少量加工费,而美国从设计、零部件供应、营销等环节获利巨大。

国际金融协会日前发布的一份报告指出,一旦美国和中国之间发生“贸易战”,不仅会损害中国企业利益,而且会损害上游供应商和下游分销商,如美国零售商的利益。

美国的举动同样不会利好美国消费者。美中贸易全国委员会曾发布的一份报告显示,中国商品出口到美国,使美国物价水平降低了1至1.5个百分点。2015年,中美贸易可帮助一般美国家庭一年平均节省850美元以上。

中国商务部发言人表示,如果美方不顾事实、不尊重多边贸易规则而采取损害双方经贸关系的举动,中方绝不会坐视,必将采取所有适当措施,坚决捍卫中方合法权益。

更何况,如果中美爆发“贸易战”,中国可采取的反制措施也很有分量。即使中国仅以限制进口美国飞机和大豆回敬美国,后果也将是“破坏性的”。数据显示,截至今年6月,中国是美国第二大贸易伙伴、第三大出口市场和第一大进口来源地,美国出口的26%的波音飞机、56%的大豆、16%的汽车、15%的集成电路目的地是中国。

合则两利,斗则俱伤。美国应该认识到“贸易战”是把双刃剑,其后果只会“损人不利己”。同时,中国也要努力从“世界工厂”转变为“世界总部”,在研发、生产、销售等环节进行全球化布局,才会尽可能降低“301调查”等类似手段带来的影响。

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