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市场化步入第二年 玉米价格谁说了算
2017-09-26 09:52:54 中国经济网
目前,新产玉米陆续上市,无论是种粮的农民、农业合作社,是准备收购的小商贩、贸易商、粮库,是深加工企业、饲料企业,还是参与期货交易的投资者、机构,均急切地想弄清楚玉米价格到底会怎么走,以至于近期有关玉米市场形势分析的会议、论坛与研讨会层出不穷。而在新的市场年度,究竟哪些因素主导着玉米价格的涨跌呢?
供应
单产增加总产下滑 国储库存数量庞大
今年是国内玉米市场化的第二年,但由于临储库存依然庞大、价补分离改革正在推进,加上产区深加工企业收购当地产玉米如何补贴、东北产玉米外运费用如何补贴等问题悬而未决,政策对价格的影响仍然不可忽视。
与此同时,在市场化加强的情况下,供应、需求、产区天气、市场心态、资金等对价格的影响力不断提高,稍有“风吹草动”,玉米价格就会随之变化。
期货日报记者对今年国内玉米主要产区种植面积、天气条件及作物长势等情况进行综合分析后发现,夏播玉米单产增加已经得到市场普遍认可,但由于种植面积下降幅度较大、春玉米单产也不理想,新产玉米总产量预计与去年持平,甚至略减。即便如此,由于临储玉米库存庞大,国内玉米市场供应还是无虞的。
国家气象中心农业气象中心主任侯英雨9月20日在大商所于大连举办的第十届中国玉米产业大会上表示,从全球玉米生长发育气象影响分析,今年气象条件整体较好,利于玉米生长。
“今年,玉米播种季节,大部分地区墒情适宜,气温回升快,土壤化冻早,利于适时整地播种;玉米生长季节,光热充足,降水接近常年,特别是6—8月,降水比较及时。”侯英雨补充说,不过,6月下旬—7月中旬,陕西中部、山西西南部以及河北中部出现近12年来的最强持续高温天气;8月下旬—9月初,东北、华北、黄淮和西北东部气温偏低,日照偏少,玉米光合作用减弱,上述产区的玉米单产承压。
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