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欧洲经济的“默克尔”曲线

2017-09-26 07:42:55   中国经济网

2005年,来自东德的默克尔女士成为德国新一届总理。当她刚刚进入德国总理办公室时,还是英国前首相布莱尔、美国前总统小布什的时代。12年过去,身边的世界早已换新,伴随着默克尔稳稳拿到第四任总理“续期”,英语世界屡屡被称做“欧洲病人”的德国也彻底翻身。制衡债务危机、解救欧元区、纾困难民潮,这位本土“移民”已在欧洲架设了新的经济曲线。

欧元:统一的“捍卫者”

根据最新的官方数据,默克尔领导的基督教民主联盟(CDU)及盟友基督教社会联盟(CSU)获得最多选票,得票率达32.7%。如选前预期,默克尔将第四次连任德国总理,成为欧盟在位最久的现任领导人。

不过,和前四年的大选相比,基民盟、基社盟的得票率明显下滑,而联合执政的社会民主党(SPD)只拿下20.2%的选票,创二战后的最低得票率。相反,反移民、反伊斯兰化的右翼政党德国新选择党(AfD),得票率超过预期,除了成为德国第三大党,也成为1950年代以来第一个取得联邦议院席次的右翼政党。

而极右翼政党德国新选择党是惟一一个愿意追随英国“脱欧”路线,并希望通过公投离开欧盟的政党。它还想退出欧元区,重新引入德国马克。极左翼政党左派党不提倡退出欧盟,但目标是彻底改写《马斯特里赫特条约》和《里斯本条约》,以允许欧洲“新的开始”。该党也是惟一在宣言中明确要求希腊减免债务的政党。

相比下,默克尔的基民盟/基社盟则在竞选宣言中称,“我们将继续排除债务的共同化,这听起来像是对马克龙的警告,但同时也指出,我们已准备好与新的法国政府逐步发展欧元区”。

事实上,捍卫欧元的“统一”,默克尔最大的底牌还是德国经济。三届总理任期内成绩可观,作为欧洲最大的国民经济体,德国的经济增幅略高于欧元区的整体水平。2017财政年度收支盈余预计高达183亿欧元,失业率降至4%以下,创下历史新低。有统计称,默克尔开始第一任总理任期时,德国有500万人失业,如今只剩250万,足足少了一半。

面对德国国内外一系列危机,默克尔与她领导下的德国政府表现亦可圈可点,在英国“脱欧”、法国国内乱象频出之际,德国已当之无愧地成为欧盟的政治基石、欧元经济区的火车头。

债务:倔强的“铁娘子”

几年前那场债务危机时常如影随形。在许多与会者的记忆里,这是为期三年的欧债危机的谷底。2011年二十国集团峰会(G20)11月3日-4日在法国戛纳举行,与会者在欧洲零距离讨论欧债危机等问题。

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