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德极右政党“逆袭” 默克尔要念“紧箍咒”

2017-09-26 06:56:54   新华网

德国大选结果25日初步揭晓,右翼民粹主义政党德国选择党异军突起,得票率排名第三。这是第二次世界大战结束后德国首次有极右翼政党进入联邦议院。

德国总理安格拉·默克尔领导的联盟党和欧洲议会前议长马丁·舒尔茨领导的社会民主党虽然位居前两位,但得票率相比上届选举均大幅下滑。中国国际问题研究院欧洲所助理研究员张蓓指出,这对联盟党和社民党都是打击。“默克尔执政的地位受到极大削弱,社民党更是遭遇历史最低点,而德国极右翼势力则有所上升。”

张蓓认为,德国选择党今年吸引了很多初次参加投票的选民,而相比其他西方国家的极右翼政党,该党的主张对社民党和联盟党的传统支持者都有吸引力。

德国选择党成立于2013年,在欧债危机背景下凭借反欧元等政治主张迅速崛起,当年首次参加大选,仅以0.3个百分点的差距未能进入联邦议院。

随着欧债危机缓解,选择党一度显得过气,但2015年爆发的难民危机又为该党注入新活力。上百万难民涌入使德国在安全、经济、文化等多维度遭受冲击,国内矛盾激化。而德国选择党凭借反移民、反难民等激进主张再次崛起。

“从某种程度讲,德国选择党进入联邦议院是必然。”张蓓说,近年来,该党完成从“反欧元”到“反移民”的转型,抓住德国社会对难民问题的分裂态度从中渔利。

德国选择党曾表示,一旦执政,将对默克尔提起诉讼,指控她的难民政策违法。默克尔24日回应说,自己“无所畏惧”,“任何框架下的调查我都不害怕”。

虽然“逆袭”成功,等待德国选择党的并非顺风顺水,而是主流政党全力阻击。

舒尔茨认为,极右势力抬头的现象不仅“堪忧”,还构成德国社会的“转折点”。“很明显,接收难民的政策产生民意分歧。对一部分人来说,这一举措充满人性,但另外一部分群体则认为此举构成威胁。”

社民党已宣布不再加入执政联盟,而是寻求成为最大反对党,从而阻止德国选择党成为议会第一大反对党、发挥更大影响力。

如果默克尔要利用议会制度对德国选择党念起“紧箍咒”,可以选择同传统盟友自由民主党、德国绿党联合组阁。但一些分析师指出,由于绿党立场中间偏左,与联盟党和自由民主党中间偏右的立场有所差别,组阁前景尚不明朗。

“主流政党能否阻击德国选择党,很大程度上取决于联盟党组阁后能否与‘小伙伴’调和利益与政策分歧,不让德国选择党抓住可乘之机,”张蓓说。(王逸君)(新华社专特稿)

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