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默克尔虽然赢得了大选,但是其所处的政治决策空间更为局促复杂。
在周日举行的德国第19届联邦议会选举中,默克尔领导的联盟党以32.9%的支持率胜出。本届大选,选前看似平静,选后却是暗流涌动。在联邦德国的历史上,首次有六个党团(联盟党、社会民主党、德国选择党、自由民主党、绿党、左翼党)进入联邦议会,执政联盟与反对党的格局发生重大变化。默克尔虽然赢得了大选,但是其所处的政治决策空间更为局促复杂。综观本届大选的结果,有以下几点值得关注。
组阁只剩下“牙买加”选项?
首先,默克尔领导的联盟党支持率大幅下滑,仅为32.9%,与上一届联邦议会选举相比,减少了近8个百分点,这也是1953年以来联盟党获得的最低支持率。联盟党作为第一大党,虽然获得组阁权,但是相对于2013年的从容不迫,本届大选的组阁空间异常狭窄。鉴于默克尔领导的联盟党多次表示,拒绝与德国选择党或左翼党联合执政,本届大选理论上只存在两种组阁可能:一是联盟党与社会民主党继续现有的黑红大联盟政府,二是联盟党寻求与自由民主党和绿党联合组阁,形成所谓的牙买加联盟(黑黄绿联盟)。
其次,第二大党社会民主党的得票率仅为20.8%,跌至历史低谷。在德国战后举行的19次联邦议会选举中,社会民主党的得票率有五次超过40%,九次介于30-40%之间。社会民主党的支持率下滑,意味着德国民主的危机。中右翼联盟党和中左翼社会民主党作为势均力敌的两大人民党,主导德国战后政党政治的发展。历经2005-2009年和2013-2017年两次联合组阁,两党之间的界限日渐模糊,社会民主党俨然沦为联盟党的一个分支。如果想要在未来重构两大政党政治的竞争格局,社会民主党必须放弃与联盟党联合执政的选项。选举结果公布之后,社会民主党候选人舒尔茨明确表示, 社会民主党不再寻求组建新的大联盟,而是作为最大的反对党。
第三,右翼民粹主义政党德国选择党以第三大党的身份成功进入联邦议会,有可能对德国政治的未来发展造成不利影响。德国选择党的崛起,主要原因在于默克尔领导的基督教民主联盟不断向中间靠拢,忽略了该党原有的保守主义支持者。难民危机的演进,加剧了德国社会的分化,使成立只有五年的德国选择党得以迅速发展壮大。按照惯例,联邦议会第一大反对党将获得预算委员会主席的职位。由于社会民主党宣布放弃联合组阁,主动成为第一大反对党,在一定程度上削弱了德国选择党作为反对党的影响力。
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