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塞翁失马焉知非福 默克尔咋化解“难民关”

2017-09-25 07:21:55   新华网

2015年涌向欧洲的难民潮,险些威胁到德国总理默克尔第三次连任的希望。由于决定向难民敞开大门,占据道义高点的默克尔一度陷入“政治危机”:支持率一路下降,其领导的基民盟接连在多场地方议会选举中受挫。

然而,9月24日德国联邦议院选举前夕,默克尔早已一扫颓势,“坐等当选”。回头看她,身上还是那件款式多年不变的套装,演讲手势还是经典的“默克尔菱形”。小到衣服动作,大到执政风格,默克尔自2005年出任总理以来给人最大的感觉就是“稳”。

正是凭着“稳”,默克尔化解了难民危机的影响。也正是凭着“稳”,默克尔或将再次赢得选民支持。

  【难民危机持续发酵】

2015年底,英国《金融时报》把默克尔评为年度人物,赞叹“默克尔对难民危机的回应深刻撼动了欧洲,即使她失败了,也将留下不可磨灭的印记”。

当年9月,默克尔决定向难民敞开国门,这一充满人道主义精神的举动一度赢得国内外赞誉。然而,在德国国内,一百多万难民短时间内涌入,给社会治安、文化融合、难民安置等方面带来严峻挑战。德国多州承压,纷纷要求默克尔限制难民入境,部分与默克尔唱反调的声音甚至来自她所领导的联盟党(由基民盟和基社盟组成)内部。

2016年跨年夜,德国西部城市科隆发生大规模抢劫和性侵案件。警方接到逾千起报案,其中约一半与性骚扰有关。由于不少嫌疑人为难民,这一事件引发德国社会对难民和安全问题的大讨论。此外,自2016年以来,向来平静的德国接连发生多起暴力事件,一些袭击者为难民或有移民背景。

这一系列事件持续发酵,引发德国舆论对难民涌入的不满,进而质疑默克尔接纳难民的决定。这种情绪变化立即体现在政治选举中,2016年基民盟接连在多场地方议会选举中受挫,在传统强势阵地巴登-符腾堡州议会选举中仅获27%选票,创下历史新低。

德国国内甚至出现要求默克尔下台的声音,这对于有意寻求第三次连任的默克尔无疑是重大挫折。德国《星期日图片报》去年8月发布民调显示,50%的受访者反对默克尔连任,支持者仅占42%。去年11月默克尔宣布竞选连任时,几乎所有分析人士都认为这将是她执政以来最艰难的选战。

  【三招走出“政治危机”】

执政12年,默克尔多次站在风口浪尖,久经历练,包括应对欧洲债务危机和乌克兰危机。这次面对难民问题带来的政治危机,默克尔依然“稳”字当头,发挥政治智慧,最终平稳化解危机,为第三次连任赢得机会。

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