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标普下调我国主权评级 专家:中国不必削足适履

2017-09-22 00:02:00   新华网

新华社北京9月21日电 题:标普下调我国主权评级 专家:中国不必削足适履

新华社记者刘红霞、申铖

国际信用评级机构标准普尔21日将中国主权信用评级由AA-下调为A+,展望由负面调整至稳定。

不少学者认为,标普评级所采用的理论已然跟不上世界经济、尤其是中国经济的发展步伐,难以及时、客观、全面呈现中国经济发展现状,更无法指明中国经济发展趋向。中国可以把标普的部分判断作为“善意的提醒”,但完全不必削足适履。

标普此次给我国降级,主要依据是“长时间强劲信贷增长提高了中国经济的金融风险”。按这家机构的说法,尽管中国政府近期加大控制企业杠杆水平的力度,有望稳定中期金融风险趋势,但“我们预计未来两到三年的信贷增长速度仍不低,会继续推动金融风险逐步上升”。

“从标普给出的理由看,他们主要考虑的是信贷与流动性风险。”北京师范大学国民核算研究院副教授李昕分析,“关注信贷与流动性本身没问题,但仅仅因为短期指标变化就判断我国金融系统风险上升、从而调低评级,这值得商榷。”

中央财经大学中国公共财政与政策研究院院长乔宝云认为,与另一家国际信用评级机构穆迪类似,标普下调我国主权信用评级“并不令人意外”,因为这家机构“所采用的理论已经和中国快速发展的现实脱节”,它也没有合理评估中国经济增长的韧性。

“这就好比,标普为每个经济体套上一双同样大小款式的鞋子,继而来审视脚合不合适。”乔宝云说,“但我们完全不必惊慌,更不必削足适履。相反,改革开放近40年的经济社会发展,应该让我们有足够自信泰然处之。”

实际上,标普所提到的杠杆率问题,正是我国一段时期以来着力研究处理并已取得一定成效的课题。根据国际清算银行(BIS)数据,2016年末,我国非金融企业杠杆率为166.3%,连续两个季度环比下降或持平,这是非金融企业杠杆率连续19个季度上升后首次改变;我国信贷/GDP缺口比2016年一季度末降低4.2个百分点,连续3个季度下降,表明潜在债务压力趋于减轻。

“这些评级公司很多情况下是‘后视镜’。”中金公司首席经济学家梁红告诉记者,“问题发生的时候,他们没有注意到,等到问题正在逐步消化解决中的时候,他们又开始关注了。”

分析人士认为,标普作出对中国“降级”的决定,不会对我国的外资吸引力产生太大影响,因为包括就业、企业利润、工业增加值等各项宏观数据依然表现较好,更重要的是,我国政府正在持续着力优化营商环境,推出了多项实实在在的政策措施。

与此同时,部分专家认为,虽然标普的降级决定“存在误判”,但该机构指出的一些问题确实可以作为“善意的提醒”,比如深入推进去杠杆,并加强防范地方政府债务风险等。

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