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巴曙松:对国际评级机构的评级结果进行再评价

2017-09-23 13:01:57   中国经济网

2017年9月下旬,标准普尔将中国的主权信用评级展望调整为稳定,这是自1999年以来,标准普尔首次调降对中国的评级,因而引起广泛的关注与争议。不过,同样值得关注的是,就在标准普尔调低中国主权评级后几个小时,中国邮储银行的美元债券发行受到国际市场的热烈追捧,说明国际评级机构的评级调整并没有对中国债市产生实质性的影响。

通常来说,信用评级机构进行的国家主权信用评级,实质就是对中央政府作为债务人履行偿债责任的信用意愿与能力的一种判断,其评级结果往往对各国政府债券的融资成本等产生具有一定的影响力,但是,相比较来说,主权评级方法的科学性远远不如其他类型的评级,如评级样本有限、违约样本少、缺乏客观科学的评级框架而主要依赖评级机构的主观判断等。

正由于此,即使都在评级领域,两家评级机构,也可能同一时间对同一评级对象给出不同、甚至相反的评级结果。通常来说,评级是对偿债能力和偿债意愿,即相对信用风险(不是绝对信用风险)的预测。既然是预测,从操作层面看,就需要立足于假设条件和所掌握信息的充分性。这两个条件不同,评级结果就有差异。同时,不同评级机构的评级理念、评级思想、评级方法和评级标准都是有差异的,也就是需要不同的评级机构给投资者提供不同,甚至相反的投资参考和看法。从目前的一些分析资料看,如穆迪似更注重“违约损失率”预测,而标普似更注重“违约率”预测;穆迪对主权评级时似更注重地缘政治因素分析,而标普似更注重对被评级国家或地区的财政政策、税收政策和货币政策等的分析。这也是2012年6月22日,就在同一天,穆迪和标普两家评级机构对哈萨克斯坦主权评级作出完全相反方向调整级别的原因。

因为国际主要的评级机构的主权信用评级体系了这些机构的看法,其调整评级的原因也自然有一定的参考价值,例如标准普尔在评级报告中指出的信贷增长过快、以及对地方政府债务和国有企业债务是否会转嫁为中央政府债务等问题,也正是中国政府近年来一直在积极采取举措着手解决的问题。

与此同时,这些国际评级机构的评级结果、特别是主权信用评级结构,长期以来也一直受到不少的批评,具体来说,主要包括以下几个方面:

一 从事后评估看,评级结果往往过于亲经济周期,有时过于受市场情绪影响

在一些代表性的评级实例中,国际评级机构的评级结果往往容易表现出一种明显的亲经济周期性,即在周期的繁荣阶段往往容易倾向于高估,而在周期的衰退阶段往往容易倾向于低估。这一点在2009年金融危机阶段对希腊的评级中表现得较为明显,而国际评级机构受到的批评也较为激烈。

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