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小麦:“金九”行情难续

2017-09-18 09:21:44   中国经济网

8月中旬—9月初,各地小麦价格温和上涨。9月中旬开始,低价地区如陕西和江苏,继续小幅上涨麦价,而高价地区如河北和山东,相继下调麦价。高价地区的麦价是否还有下调空间?持粮主体目前该不该出货?带着这些疑问,我们展开分析。

持粮主体惜售 散粮流通量少

在河北、山东,粮商和农户多有数量不等的存货。受去年小麦高价的影响,部分粮商和农户对今年的麦价期许较高。从小麦上市初期到8月中旬,麦价呈高开平走态势,粮商购销的利润空间较小,普遍存粮待沽。8月中旬开始,麦价温和上涨,粮商大多看涨惜售。进入9月,麦价达到部分粮商的心理预期价位,他们开始分批出售手中存货。此外,按照农户的售粮习惯,其多选择在春节前集中出货。粮商上货量偏低,市场有效供应偏紧。

收购同比减少 余粮供应充裕

国家粮食局的统计数据显示,截至9月10日,主产区小麦累计收购6809万吨,同比减少180万吨。其中,河北收购551万吨,同比减少130万吨;江苏收购1238万吨,同比增加101万吨;安徽收购954万吨,同比减少86万吨;山东收购978万吨,同比减少53万吨;河南收购2146万吨,同比增加16万吨;湖北收购247万吨,同比增加12万吨。另有数据显示,今年小麦产量为12375万吨,同比增产107万吨。这意味着在总产量增加而收购量减少的情况下,小麦的市场供应同比更为宽松。加之今年小麦品质较好,麦价像去年那样大涨的概率很小。

面粉价格难涨 厂家加工成本高

国庆节和中秋节临近,面粉厂和经销商往往需要提前备货。然而,近年来,面粉旺季不旺成为普遍趋势。目前,多数经销商已经提前完成备货。厂家新增订单减少,面粉需求一般,价格难涨。面粉厂加工成本较高,利润微薄,开工小幅下调。高价地区厂家靠下调小麦收购价格来降低生产成本,而低价地区由于到货量少,厂家为满足正常的生产加工需求,不得不提高收购价格以增加到货量。

山东托市收购暂停 10月政策面偏空

近日,中储粮下发通知,自9月8日起,山东省所有小麦最低收购价收储库点暂停收购。这一规定,抑制了高价地区麦价的持续上涨。2006年至今,我国实施小麦最低托市收购政策,其稳定了粮食价格,保障了农户种植利益,但所带来的弊端也正在逐渐显现,如市场出现了产量高、库存高、进口高的“三高”问题。在第十八届中国粮食论坛上有专家提出做好调整小麦最低收购价的准备,建议将明年的小麦最低收购价下调0.03元/斤,至1.15元/斤。虽然只是一个建议,未有明确文件下达,但它释放了一个下调麦价的信号。

综上分析,短期内高价地区麦价仍有下调可能,但受市场有效供应偏紧的提振,下调幅度不会很大,小麦市场高低价差将缩小。另外,10月政策性风险加大,粮商不可盲目追价,可在当下选择合适的时机出货。

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