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近期两市观望情绪明显,昨日沪深两市在这一情绪的发酵中出现了回调。近期盘面的一大特征就是速度极快的热点切换。在结构性的行情中,行业与个股之间,分化成为了主基调。在此背景下,虽然当前市场动能已有所弱化,但并不碍部分资金对优质个股进行挖掘。此外,值得欣慰的是,在资金流向方面,仍有相对积极信号。因此,在风险释放后,估值合理的成长类个股仍有一定机会。
风险与机遇并存
昨日,两市冲高回落,走势较为疲软,受制于煤炭、钢铁、有色等周期板块的表现,早盘指数反抽无功而返,两市重回跌势。午后,两市维持弱势震荡走势,盘面分化严重。而沪指也两度小幅跳水一度跌近1%。临近尾盘,两市跌幅有所收窄。截至收盘时,沪指下跌0.38%,报3371.43点,成交2567亿元;深成指下跌0.19%,报11070.5点,成交3296亿元。值得注意的是,虽然昨日指数方面全线回调,但在28个申万一级行业中,却仍有11个行业出现了上涨,表明当前市场并非完全没有投资机会。从两融资金已攀至9800亿关口的情况来看,资金参与的热情并未出现明显拐点。而从资金流向来看,房地产、医药生物,通信仍有资金流入。因此,从上述情况来看,风险释放后,估值合理的成长个股料将仍有一定机会。
分析人士表示,从技术面看,沪指自8月25日两根中阳之后,持续在3360-3390点之间震荡已达半个月之久,短期来看也势必进行方向性选择。但对于回调,分析人士认为投资者也不必全然悲观,即使是在回调趋势中,也仍存在一定机会。当前市场分化趋势较为明显,出现回落反而会是优质个股再次崛起的机会。因此,对于乐观的投资者而言,回落可以认为是检验个股成色的一个机会,而在这一过程中反而将更容易看出优质个股的抗跌性和独立性。
当前,虽然盘面特征已从此前的“沪强深弱”转换为“沪弱深强”。但不变的却是市场上令人“应接不暇”的热点切换速度,从“金融、周期齐飞”到“金融、周期轮动”,再到次新股、计算机、房地产,即便是在大盘出现回调背景的昨日,盘面的热点切换速度依然可以用令人“眼花缭乱”来形容。西藏板块、维生素、旅游、地产等涨幅居前,而前期热点的稀土、煤炭、钢铁、保险、造纸、有色等板块跌幅居前。
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