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经济韧性足 股指中期维持多头思路

2017-09-13 10:07:37   中国经济网

市场焦点转移至二线蓝筹

9月以来,上证指数高位振荡偏弱,深成指和创业板指虽然表现较强,但近期出现回调态势,一方面是由于前期涨幅较大,获利盘有止盈需求,另一方面由于朝鲜半岛核试验推升市场避险情绪。从前期支撑股市反弹的因素来看,宏观基本面改善、资金面平稳以及监管政策温和去杠杆均没有发生较大改变,尽管短线市场有调整需求,但并不建议去追空,回调即是买入机会。

宏观经济韧性十足

对于本轮经济回升,主要原因是供给侧改革推动上游企业去产能,大宗商品价格回升,企业盈利能力恢复,而终端需求稳中向好,带动上中下游企业资产负债表修复,中下游企业补库存意愿增加。在企业补库存而需求向好的带动下,经济出现了触底反弹态势。虽然7月经济数据略有下滑,但本轮经济反弹逻辑尚在。

8月高频数据电厂耗煤量以及钢厂高炉开工率均维持高位,生产旺盛,同时8月PMI指数51.7,连续13个月位于荣枯线上方,生产和需求双双上行,处于扩张状态,经济韧性超出市场预期。

近期出台的《京津冀及周边地区2017—2018年秋冬季大气污染综合治理攻坚行动方案》勘称史上最严,此次方案实施时间是2017年10月至2018年3月,考虑到4季度的环保限产因素,一些工业企业可能会将生产提前,9月宏观经济预计表现强劲。

资金面紧平衡预期不改

在目前经济强劲及去杠杆的背景下,央行并无放松货币的需要,主要通过“削峰填谷”操作来熨平季节性和临时性因素对流动性的影响,市场宽松预期受到打压。美联储即将迎来议息会议,此次会议,美联储会不会启动后金融危机时代首次“缩表”行动是市场关注的焦点,考虑到美国的通胀和就业数据疲弱,即使美联储缩表,美元指数上行空间有限,人民币汇率难回贬值通道。

近期央行将外汇风险准备金率调降为零,表明人民币贬值预期减弱,无论是从国内实体经济表现还是人民币汇率走势来看,央行均没有必要放松货币政策,资金面紧平衡预期不改。

经过上半年的金融去杠杆,金融部门杠杆水平稳步回落,抑制资金“脱实向虚”的成效已有所显现,进入下半年,金融去杠杆仍将继续,预计下半年金融监管政策会更加温和,对市场压力较小。

综合来看,中国经济增长展现出十足韧性,环保因素或将导致工业企业将需求提前,从而刺激9月经济表现强劲,同时资金面紧平衡预期不改,短期市场波动更多来自于情绪面,中期市场依旧维持多头态势。近期A股风格有切换至二线蓝筹的趋势,在期指种类选择上建议做多IC合约。

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