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市场主线未变 “真成长”料继续发力

2017-09-13 07:56:33   中国经济网

尽管沪指在创下年内高点后近期走势纠结,但总体来看,市场当前表现依旧比较稳健,年初至今大幅落后的中小市值股票出现了反弹势头,创业板指数也已企稳回升。而近期盘面的另一个焦点则是“眼花缭乱”的热点切换,由于热点也多属中小市值个股,预计在当前背景下,中小市值个股逐渐受到投资者关注。

在指数滞涨的情况下,当前题材唱戏渐成为主流,其中包括锂电池、新能源汽车、芯片国产化、石墨烯等在内的诸多热点题材反复演绎。分析人士表示,在3400点关口前,清晰把握供给侧改革这一主线,同时注重投资标的估值和业绩增长的匹配优选创蓝筹,仍是一个不错的选择。

理性看待板块轮动

总体来说,近期A股整体的走势还算“中规中矩”。不过,两市风格分化却相当明显,“沪弱深强”格局已比较清晰。在上证综指踌躇不前时,深证成指却是一路“节节高”。在此背景下,近两周以来,中小板指的走势堪称“强劲”,创业板也开始了企稳回升。而相对而言,沪深300和上证50走势则相对趋弱,甚至出现了回调。

从昨日交易的实际情况来看,市场出现了冲高回落的走势,整体较为弱势。在行业板块方面呈现出“跌多涨少”的格局。截至收盘,28个申万一级行业中实现上涨的行业仅有10个,且多为权重集中的如非银金融、建筑材料、采掘、银行、化工、钢铁等几个板块,这些板块为昨日尾盘顺利实现的企稳回升“立了头功”。而反观下跌的18个行业中,多为中小市值较为集中的行业。而昨日午后大盘下挫的“元凶”应该就是新能源汽车板块开始大幅跳水,在此过程中,中小板指也迅速由涨1.23%大幅下挫至平盘以下,令投资者感到错愕。

当前盘面热点切换的速度实在是令人“眼花缭乱”,不少市场人士发出这样的感叹。从前期的“金融+周期齐飞”到“金融与周期轮动”,再到次新股、计算机、房地产……盘面特征也是说变就变,从此前的“沪强深弱”到“沪弱深强”。在这一情况下,此前坚持投资大盘蓝筹的市场呼声,现在被弃大抓小之声所代替。

分析人士表示,在当前行情分歧之际其实更有必要再次审视“主、次”、“大、小”的问题。此前,多数机构就已把此波反弹定位为结构性行情,而在此存量博弈的市场中,资金流向对行情无疑是具有决定意义的。从近期实际交易的情况来看,在大盘整固中,权重个股与中小市值个股二者之间关系更多的情况下其实是“一荣俱荣,一损俱损”,而非所谓“跷跷板”的关系。在权重股向好的情况下,中小市值个股一般也能借势“水涨船高”。正所谓“大盘搭台,小盘唱戏”。而在权重集体回调的氛围之下,市场往往“泥沙俱下”,即便是很多估值不高、质地优良的中小市值个股一样会被错杀。因此,判断当前中小市值个股的投资价值和时机同样也脱离不了市场这个大的前提。

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