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盛松成:下半年货币政策或保持紧平衡

2017-09-07 09:11:58   中国经济网

由浦银安盛基金举办的“放眼全球化,投资新格局”2017年度投资高峰论坛近日在上海陆家嘴隆重举行。本次论坛采取主题演讲、圆桌论坛对话形式,业内众多知名经济学家、券商分析师及财富管理界的顶尖嘉宾莅临现场,共同探讨经济全球化下的投资新趋势。

“下半年我国货币政策或保持紧平衡,汇率升、利率缓。”中国人民银行参事、中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院常务副院长盛松成在论坛上发表主题演讲时表示。

对于下半年汇率走势,盛松成提出,预测下半年汇率依然会维持稳定,甚至有所升值。“人民币兑美元汇率下半年到6.6,甚至6.5,是完全有可能的”。

盛松成指出,我国的市场利率水平最近半年来已经有较大幅度的提高。“十年期国债比去年同期高了0.7个百分点”。针对今年下半年我国金融市场和货币政策可能的趋向,盛松成用两句话加以概括:“市场利率平滑下行,流动性紧中趋缓。”

在盛松成看来,下半年利率一般不会继续上行,而是较为平稳甚至小幅下行,利率短期波动的幅度会比上半年小;下半年市场流动性可能仍处于紧平衡状态,不会大幅宽松,但也不会再趋紧,而是会有所缓和。

论坛上,盛松成具体阐述了支撑上述观点的四大理由。一是我国没有明显的通胀压力。二是我国市场利率近半年来的上升实质上已先于美联储加息。三是人民银行不会像美联储那样缩表。四是金融去杠杆已初见成效。

盛松成初步判断:我国仍将实施稳健中性的货币政策,但货币政策应该不会更紧。盛松成表示,尽管超储率已经很低,但降准仍存在一些顾虑:降准释放宽松的信号意义太强,而这与当前总体基调不符。第二,降准以后短期内是不能再升准的,而通过SLF、MLF、PSL等一系列货币政策工具可以达到增加货币供应量的目的。 李阳

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