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张连起:中国经济是否迎来新周期

2017-09-06 17:36:43   中国经济网

经济日报-中国经济网编者按:2017年上半年供给侧结构性改革取得显著成效,我国经济呈现“缓中趋稳,稳中向好”态势。1-7月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额42481.2亿元,同比增长21.2%。于是,各种关于“新周期”来了的讨论此起彼伏。日前,全国政协委员、会计审计学家张连起撰文指出,经济进入“L型”一横的平台期基本确立。透过数据,可以看到新动能的快速崛起。当前,与“互联网+”联系密切的新兴产业正成为市场“新宠”,互联网经济蓬勃发展;新型城镇化的加快推进扩大了发展空间,创造了巨大的市场需求;供给侧结构性改革的深入推进推动了体制环境、政策环境的改善,创业创新活力持续迸发。

张连起认为,新动能长一分,中国经济效益长一寸。传统动能改造提升和新动能发展空间很大,但新动能成长不是一个自然而然的过程,顺利实现新旧动能转换离不开全面深化改革和政府职能转变。随着经济发展阶段的转变,政府治理经济的模式也要相应改革,特别是要着力优化营商环境,为企业创造公平竞争和有助于优胜劣汰的市场环境,充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,使企业得到更快发展,让新经济新动能脱颖而出、茁壮成长。

全文如下:

2017年上半年供给侧结构性改革取得显著成效,我国经济呈现“缓中趋稳,稳中向好”态势。1-7月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额42481.2亿元,同比增长21.2%。

于是,各种关于“新周期”来了的讨论此起彼伏。仔细回顾一下,这两年市场对于“硬着陆”和“新周期”的讨论,反复的特别快,但如果我们来看一下中国的实际GDP增速,会发现其实非常的稳定。如果回到去年中期,市场对经济相对理性的判断——经济是“L型”走势,“L型”的这一横会很长,但大家似乎并不习惯经济不是特别好也不是特别差。因为根据过去15年的经验,要么是45度向上,要么是像2008年那样的45度向下,其实大家都不是特别适应近两年经济在底部徘徊的阶段。未来新的经济增长动力起来以后,整个经济就会向上走。但是在经济动力切换的过程中,整体经济增长的斜率是放缓的,无论向上还是向下。这轮由供给侧结构性改革引起的,部分行业供给短缺导致的价格上涨是有尽头的,不构成宏观经济层面的彻底反转。

 结构性改革

这几年,以新发展理念为指导,经济工作的各项部署和一系列政策举措,都有较大调整和转变,我国经济由此走上了新路子、取得了新成绩。在此过程中,中央作出的重大判断、重大调整、重大决策,也经受住了实践的检验。

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