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A股大涨下B股的“和而不同”

2017-09-04 07:35:52   中国经济网

7月以来周期行情令沪深指数纷纷创出阶段性新高,但A股牛气冲天的同时,B股走势发生背离。8月以来,上证B股继续随同沪综指攻城拔寨,深证B股却发生转折,呈现趋势性下跌态势,近期更出现量价背离。此外,近期人民币汇率走强,“蹊跷”背后的原因值得探究。券商分析师大多认为,当前外围股市涨跌分化,美元兑人民币中间价升值,B股涨跌分化,沪强深弱,成交缩减,预计短期将延续调整。

B股强劲反弹

上周五,上证B指冲高回落,盘中以347.20点创出4月以来新高,从而连续第五个交易日立于年线上方。同时,当天上证B指成交也创出5个月最高纪录,达到4.48亿元。

自5月末触及312.84点这一近20个月新低,整个二季度期间,上证B指持续反弹,迄今累计涨幅为7.51%,与沪综指8.02%的同期涨幅大致相当。

截至9月1日,深证B指同样处于2016年末以来区间高位,但6月以来该指数先扬后抑,在8月1日盘中录得1184.68点10个月最高点位后,便与上证B指“分道扬镳”,独自进入连下台阶的弱势通道。

抛开8月以来两大B股指数分化走势先不谈,6-7月B股震荡走高,很大程度上与宏观经济超预期回暖有关。数据显示,上半年经济保持中高速增长,GDP实际同比增长6.9%,与一季度持平,并且连续8个季度保持在6.7%-6.9%区间,好于市场6.7%的预期。

市场人士分析,今年上半年,伴随供给侧改革和“去产能”加速推进,三大产业结构优化明显,其中工业涨势强劲,零售业增长超预期,叠加投资增速企稳,房地产开发销售强于投资,商品房待售面积持续减少。特别是煤炭、钢铁、有色金属等资源品价格回升明显,叠加环保督查趋严影响,企业利润快速回升,推动周期行业景气度和基本面持续改善。

以华新B为例,6月以来,该股区间涨幅达到48.52%。根据公司中期报告,2017年上半年归属于母公司所有者的净利润为7.28亿元,较上年同期增长89.54倍;营业收入为93.74亿元,较上年同期增长63.37%。同期在A股市场上,华新水泥也交出靓丽的答卷,涨幅高达68.35%。

整体来看,6-8月期间,全部B股中下跌的股票有14只,占比仅为14%,而区间涨幅超过20%的股票有9只,超过10%的股票有26只。

沪强深弱走势分化

从AB股历史走势看,绝大多数时段二者走势并不同步,不过上半年宏观经济改善对AB股上市公司基本面都带来了利好辐射,同时结构改革持续推进、政策面支撑稳定,市场流动性水平平稳,投资者风险偏好较高,共同缔造了AB股协同上涨格局。

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