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热点主线交替强势 A股有望稳步上攻

2017-09-04 09:10:59   新华网

上周A股市场走势比较强势。上周五,A股市场形成了“双引擎驱动”的涨升局面:早盘,煤炭股、钢铁股、周期股担当了领涨角色。午后,市场热点有所切换,以大数据、云计算为新内涵的人工智能概念股反复活跃,驱动创业板担当起行情灵魂。领涨引擎快速切换,显示多头操作策略灵活多样,有利于A股后续行情演绎。

“双引擎驱动”造就强势行情

业内人士认为,目前A股市场开始进入强势格局,可以支撑起多热点主线同台竞技。以往A股人气不振之际,由于是存量资金博弈,传统产业股与新兴产业股,上证指数与创业板指数,常常呈现“跷跷板”现象,你拉我砸,你涨我跌,“此起”必以“彼伏”为代价。

但是,近期市场人气回升,成交量活跃,新增资金尝试建仓,沪深两市融资余额持续增加,市场承接力度增强,因此,盘面热点出现了积极而有意思的变化,即新兴产业股与传统产业股可以同台竞技。上周五A股走势和盘面动向,向市场参与者传递出一个积极信号:A股已进入强势格局。

基本面上,宏观经济领域出现积极信号,不仅传统产业强劲复苏,新兴产业领域也出现了清晰的产业新热点。A股市场一直是产业经济演绎的晴雨表。就目前产业格局来说,传统产业股由于供给端持续萎缩,供给侧改革效果显现,而且,由于环保力度加大,供给端萎缩超预期,所以,煤炭、钢铁、化工等产品价格持续上涨,传统产业上市公司盈利迅速改善,股价重心自然上移。

与此相对应,新兴产业基本面也出现了积极变化。人工智能、新能源动力汽车的产业化趋势非常明显,相关个股股价也水涨船高。新能源动力汽车产业链包括传统产业,比如钴、锂等资源产业,也包括新兴产业,比如电控等新产业。因此,新兴产业与传统产业均成为我国经济增长的引擎。反映在二级市场上,就是“双引擎驱动”,成为A股行情向好的强劲动力。

需求端强劲领域或成强势股摇篮

我们预计,A股后续走势较为乐观。一方面,新兴产业领域、传统产业领域均出现了较为积极的信号,有望牵引A股市场进一步回升。另一方面则是股市成交量持续放大,上周五沪市成交量已突破3000亿元,两市两融余额持续回升,大盘后市有进一步涨升空间,甚至不排除本周沪指冲击3400点的可能性。

操作中,建议投资者相对积极一些。就目前来看,除了关注供给端萎缩的行业外,还可以积极关注需求端强劲回升的领域。比如新能源动力汽车领域,因为新能源动力汽车渗透率提升,使得钴、锂等上游资源产品价格供不应求,成为新能源汽车产业发展的新瓶颈,在此背景下,该领域相关上市公司业绩有望持续高成长,天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、洛阳钼业等个股上半年业绩优异,就是最好的例证。后市此类个股仍然是较佳的投资选择。相类似的还包括橡胶助剂、医药、煤改气等领域,后市有望成为强势股摇篮。

此外,还有两类个股可跟踪:一是包括体外诊断在内的生物制药领域,近期产业催化剂较多,有望成为热钱关注的焦点。其中,安科生物等个股走势已作出表率。二是券商类个股。随着成交量放大,券商的业绩弹性将更为乐观。后市可跟踪券商龙头品种及一些业绩弹性较佳的中小市值券商股。

(金百临咨询 秦洪 执业证书:A1210612020001)

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