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非农数据低于预期 无碍美联储“缩表”

2017-09-04 10:06:08   中国经济网

行业人士:利空已被提前消化

美国劳工部9月1日公布的数据显示,8月,美国非农就业人口为15.6万,远低于预期的18万。同时,6月和7月的新增非农就业人口被大幅下修,合计下修4.1万。数据还显示,8月,虽然美国失业率升至4.4%,平均每小时工资同比增长2.5%,环比增长0.1%,但均低于市场预期。

对于8月美国非农就业数据“遇冷”,东证衍生品研究院外汇分析师元涛认为,这是由季节性因素造成的,8月美国新增就业人口数据下滑主要集中在服务业。

“当月生产部门新增就业人数创近半年来的新高,其中建筑业和耐用品生产业均增加2.8万人,这说明二季度以来美国制造业和地产业整体发展是比较积极的。”元涛说。

数据公布后,美国白宫经济顾问科恩即表态:“就业报告并不令人失望,就业增长出现在那些我们希望出现的领域。”

受近期美国通胀水平持续低迷影响,市场对8月美国非农就业数据中的薪资增长水平尤为关注。“8月美国薪资增速低于预期可能会影响到美联储的加息进程,今年12月加息的预期将有所降温。”国贸期货金属研究员蒲红刚说:“但这不会妨碍美联储9月启动‘缩表’。”

元涛认为,虽然8月就业数据表明当前美国劳动力市场有所收缩,但劳动力市场闲置空间比较有限,未来美国薪资增速依然有加速上行的动力,劳动力市场对美联储货币政策仍旧构成支撑。

令市场惊讶的是,在数据公布后,美元指数短时间下跌40多个基点后迅速拉升80个基点,涨至92.926点;国际黄金价格短时间跳涨10美元/盎司至1328.87美元/盎司后转而下行。

究其原因,蒲红刚向期货日报记者解释说,一是前期美元指数从103点的高位跌至91点附近,整体跌幅较大,市场已经提前消化了通胀和非农数据的利空影响;二是美联储9月议息会议临近,虽然市场对今年12月加息的预期降温,但美联储9月启动“缩表”基本无悬念,这在很大程度上支撑了美元;三是美国8月ISM制造业指数创6年来的新高,就业指标创5年来的最大月度增幅,表明美国经济正在稳健复苏。

对于后市,蒲红刚认为,美元指数短期内将继续维持振荡走势,之后随着美联储“缩表”的到来,再度展开反弹行情。

“近期,还需继续关注美国发布的各项经济数据、美联储加息预期变化以及美联储官员陆续发表的讲话。”元涛进一步补充说,本周欧元区将举行欧洲央行利率决议会议,市场也要密切关注欧洲央行的表态。

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