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“中国数据”提振世界预期与信心

2017-09-02 03:25:49   中国经济网

对于中国经济与世界经济之间的紧密联系,不同的立场和方法会有不同的结论,进而体现在对中国经济或是赞誉、或是非议的声音之中。但是,谁都无法否认的是,中国经济对世界意义重大,不同层面的数据都能提供有力的佐证。

最具说服力的数据是中国经济对世界经济的整体贡献。资料表明,国际金融危机爆发至今,中国经济增长对世界经济增长的贡献率年均在30%以上。这种稳定的增长提振了全球经济的预期与信心,在世界经济复苏整体乏力的背景下显得尤为珍贵。

根据世界银行测算,2013年至2016年,中国对世界经济的贡献率平均为31.6%,超过美国、欧元区和日本贡献率的总和。2017年进入第三季度,国际货币基金组织(IMF)年内第三次上调中国今明两年的经济增长预期,有力地支撑了IMF对世界经济复苏的判断。正如IMF首席经济学家莫里斯·奥布斯特费尔德所言,“中国经济保持强劲和稳定增长对世界经济十分重要,中国将继续是全球经济增长的主要推动力”。

无论是贸易、投资还是消费,中国数据在世界经济中都占有相当分量。

贸易方面,世界银行的数据显示,2016年中国货物贸易占世界比重为11.5%,位列第一;服务贸易占世界比重为6.9%,排名第二。

投资方面,联合国贸发组织和商务部研究院6月发布的报告显示,中国2016年对外投资增长44%,达到1830亿美元,成为全球第二大对外投资国。同年,中国吸引外商直接投资达1260亿美元(实际使用外资),连续5年居世界前三。

消费方面,今年上半年消费对中国经济增长的贡献率高达63.4%,提振消费的空间仍然巨大。对国际上那些原材料和能源出口国而言,中国是一个巨大的市场,拉动着国际大宗商品消费需求。随着中国经济结构继续优化,国内居民消费扩大和升级,新的进口需求也在不断涌现。

2017年初,德国一家媒体载文指出,若无中国市场,德国汽车业便将失去其最大的销售市场,这一市场在德国经济增长中占比约20%。报道指出,人们需要认识到,中国经济若有闪失,会对一个在华销售其40%以上产品的德国中小企业产生何种影响?

在反对者看来,中国经济数据对世界影响很大,会使世界对中国依赖增加,风险不小。对中国经济的种种评价也不乏以这一角度切入的。

这种说法的谬误之处颇多,尤其是忽略了中国在教育、医疗卫生、扶贫等方面的成果数据同样对世界意义重要。1950年至2016年,中国在自身长期发展水平和人民生活水平不高的情况下,累计对外提供援款4000多亿元,为发展中国家在华培训各类人员26万多名。联合国《2015年千年发展目标报告》显示,过去30年中国对全球减贫的贡献率超过70%。以此观之,无论是经济成就还是社会发展,中国对世界的贡献和影响是全方位的。对世界而言,这是发展的机遇而非增大的风险。中国数据对世界的重大意义正在于此。(经济日报·中国经济网记者 连 俊)

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