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债券市场风险类型进化
2017-09-01 07:26:25 中国经济网
债券市场进入2017年第三个季月,回顾3月和6月两个季月的市场表现,每逢季月债券市场均面临各方面的风险冲击,3月份和6月份因资金供需趋紧、MPA考核等监管政策升级以及基于经济增长预期的多空博弈等风险因素导致债券收益率上蹿下跳、投资者亦是提心吊胆。而若将风险的类型做进一步的区分,那么2017年以来债券市场的主要风险已经出现了演化。一般来说,风险的类型可以粗略划分为“已知”、“已知的未知”和“未知的未知”三种,在此三种因素中,“已知的风险”是市场明确风险因素在哪里并且对风险发生的概率和影响有了准确的理解;“已知的未知风险”是市场明确可能发生什么风险,但对风险发生的概率和影响程度缺乏准确的判断;“未知的未知风险”则是市场完全不了解未来可能发生什么风险,更不可能事前评估其发生的概率和影响程度。2016年三季度以来,诸多风险因素渐渐纳入债券的定价机理,标志着市场风险类型的进化。债券收益率从年初以来重重政策因素的打压下大开大合之态慢慢转变为三季度末的窄幅震荡,既说明监管政策、流动性冲击等因素对债券市场的冲击在淡化,也说明主导债券收益率波动的因素已经回归至基本面。进入三季度末,未来的潜在风险因素也将慢慢转移至决定债券收益率走势的经济基本面因素,而恰恰在这一点上,“未知的未知风险”占据主要地位。
2016年三季度至2017年一季度,货币政策收紧引致金融机构负债端成本抬升、针对同业存单等表外负债监管升级打压债券投资杠杆等因素还属于“未知的未知风险”,债券市场尚习惯于此前“拉长久期加杠杆”的操作和流动性供给充裕的市场状态,“未知的未知风险”冲击导致债券收益率在2016年四季度大幅上升,风险因素迅速纳入债券定价,对“金融去杠杆”风险的恐慌和未知延续至2017年一季度末,资金供需趋紧引致的负债端成本抬升等因素开始从“未知的未知”演化为“已知的未知”风险类型。
2017年二季度银监会发起的业务自查、同业存单纳入同业负债考核、对泛资管行业统一监管升级等因素亦开始发酵,但是鉴于之前两个季度的锤炼,除却抑制了金融机构的债券配置需求之外,债券收益率也在金融监管政策从“未知的未知”到“已知的未知”风险类型的演化中渐渐触及风险冲击的阶段性上限,并且市场已经开始预期从紧的金融监管政策和货币政策因会对实体经济产生冲击而在下半年逐步放缓,接过央行主导“金融去杠杆”指挥棒的银监会监管政策也在5月份之后渐渐被市场所认知。
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