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监管释放肯定信号 并购回温助推成长股

2017-08-30 07:51:46   中国经济网

日前,证监会明确表示,并购重组已成为资本市场支持实体经济发展的重要方式。2016年上市公司并购重组交易金额已增至2.39万亿元,年均增长率41.14%,居全球第二。业内人士指出,伴随监管层态度的转变,并购市场可能出现升温,成长股关注度提高及市场情绪得到迅速提升。

并购重组有望回暖

今年下半年,A股市场并购重组出现明显回温。从重大重组过会情况来看,6月、7月过会企业数量分别为27家和23家,较1-5月的月均10家增长超1倍。东方证券认为,我国并购重组正行驶在快车道上。根据数据,2013-2016年并购重组金额增长了187%,数量增长了106%。今年6月以来,随着监管层对并购重组的表态有所缓和,预计2017年三季度有望实现回升。

然而审核效率提升,并不意味着审核标准的放松,并购资产质量仍是过审关键。数据显示,随着6-7月上会项目的增加,并购重组审核通过率由前5个月的平均91.42%降至88.89%、86.96%,截至8月底,今年共有8个上会并购重组项目被否。申万宏源证券表示,分析被否原因可以得知,强强联合的并购才符合监管导向,标的资产定价公允性、资产权属是否清晰、上市公司控制权稳定性、信披质量等亦是并购重组委审核关注的要点。

华创证券从三方面梳理了并购重组的历程、影响以及演化方向。首先,2010年以来,以产业整合升级为主的外延式发展模式已经成为提升上市公司业绩的重要手段,并购重组通常会促使上市公司业绩保持6-7个季度的高速增长。其次,统计显示,因并购重组所引发的商誉波动的实际情况要好于预期,商誉减值的整体风险远低于个股风险。此外,在资本市场生态重塑后,参与并购重组的标的公司更偏向于资产结构健康、业绩增长稳定以及估值合理的企业。

华创证券认为,资本市场与改革创新良性互动的回归,将继续助力市场结构向均衡深化演绎,当前阶段市场关于并购重组的预期差,无疑对中小创和成长板块的估值构成实质性利好。监管层在金融风险防控和改革推进初见成效的节点多次正向肯定并购重组,引导市场预期和风险偏好回暖。

机构看好优质项目

华创证券称,在并购重组将持续升温预期下,建议关注产能过剩行业整合、国企改革、转型升级、服务“一带一路”相关并购重组机会。证监会8月15日的发文可以看出,并购重组在产能过剩行业整合、国企改革、转型升级、服务“一带一路”等方面发挥重要作用。

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