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美元不再“美” 人民币有点强

2017-08-29 09:07:22   中国经济网

随着杰克逊霍尔央行年会的落幕,美元与人民币再玩“跷跷板”游戏,美元指数大跌并逼近92关口,在岸、离岸人民币兑美元则双双升破6.63关口,不断延续着人民币刷新近一年新高的“蜜月”之旅。

市场人士指出,今年以来,人民币对美元升值很大程度上仍归因于美元持续走弱,其背后反映的是全球经济的同步复苏,尤其是非美经济体相对美国更为强劲的复苏。展望未来,美元反弹仍存在较大阻力,叠加中国经济稳中向好,人民币兑美元汇率预计将保持稳定甚至继续小幅走高。

美元人民币玩“跷跷板”

北京时间8月26日,备受关注的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)全球央行研讨会落下帷幕。令人意外的是,美联储主席耶伦在会议上对货币政策“避而不谈”,更多强调应温和地调整金融监管;欧洲央行行长德拉吉也未提及退出QE路线,但表态称全球及欧元区经济复苏增强,并肯定了QE政策对欧元区经济稳健复苏的贡献。

两位重量级“大佬”的表态均比预期更偏鸽派,导致汇率市场明显波动。上周五欧元兑美元大涨1.07%至1.1925,升至逾两年最高水准;美元指数则大幅下滑至92.5437,创逾一年新低,当日跌幅高达0.81%,单日跌幅为6月底以来最大。

在此背景下,人民币兑美元汇率再现强势上涨。上周五离岸人民币(CNH)兑美元率先大涨,盘中连破6.66、6.65关口,大涨178基点,报6.6433元。本周一(8月28日),银行间外汇市场人民币兑美元汇率中间价大幅上调226基点,报6.6353元,刷新2016年8月下旬以来高位纪录。

昨日市场上,两地人民币兑美元即期汇率随中间价大幅跳涨,并双双升破6.63关口,均刷新2016年8月下旬以来新高。在岸人民币兑美元开盘大涨230基点,报6.6415元,早盘于高位窄幅震荡,午后又出现两波快速拉升,盘中最高触及6.6275元,16:30收盘价报6.6323,创一年新高,较上一交易日收盘价大涨322个基点,创三个月最大涨幅。香港市场上,昨日离岸人民币兑美元延续强势上涨格局,截至北京时间18:40,最高涨至6.6206元,上涨逾200基点。

“在耶伦和德拉吉基本无关货币政策的发言之后,市场基于前期逻辑进行着自我演绎的加强,即欧央行在复苏逐步确立后不得不退出宽松,美联储因通胀起不来再收紧有限,由此欧元兑美元继续上行,人民币随之相对美元继续升值。”业内人士点评称。

美元反弹阻力较大

截至北京时间8月28日18:40,在岸人民币兑美元盘中最高触及6.6245元,较年初低点6.9213元已上涨4.48%。业内普遍认为,今年以来,人民币对美元升值很大程度上要归因于美元持续走弱,而美元走弱背后的核心因素,正是全球经济同步复苏,尤其欧元区经济体相对美国更为强劲的复苏。

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