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IH、IC比价走高 偏多思路可延续

2017-08-28 09:27:00   中国经济网

上周大盘大涨,沪指突破3300点关口,周度级别量能略有不足。IH与IC连续合约的比价低位反弹,两市风格重新切回主板。目前宏观层面虽然偏淡季,但是终端消费支撑经济运行。微观层面业绩处于密集披露期。受益于供给侧改革,周期以及金融板块走强。IF可维持多头思路,谨慎者可持有多IH空IC比价策略。

消费内部结构优化,支撑淡季基本面

三季度为传统工业运行淡季,加上密集高温天气,7月经济数据在一定程度上体现出了同比回落的特征。以支出方法计,经济运行中,以制造业为主的投资增速季节性回落。进出口贸易受益于去年人民币走弱的因素影响,短期延续上半年回暖走势。当前汇率企稳偏强,对中期净出口产生一定压制。三驾马车中,社会消费品走势稳健且内部出现结构性转型迹象,成为支撑经济一大亮点。

社会消费品2017年结构出现了一些积极变化,并且这种改善在延续。1—7月,社会消费品累计同比增速10.4%,持平前值,当月同比增速小幅下滑。值得注意的是,网上商品和服务零售额继续维持高速增长,增速进一步上升到33.7%,实物商品网销占总消费的比重进一步上升至13.8%。网上零售对于经济增长带来的贡献主要体现在物流方面,涉及两大类细分行业,一是交通运输、仓储和邮政业,二是批发和零售业,这两项在上半年对于GDP的总贡献为16.2%,比去年高2.3%。数据相互印证,可以判断消费内部发生了比较明显的变化,网络消费的高速增长成为支撑经济回暖的一大亮点。参照以往,四季度传统消费旺季料对基本面形成进一步支撑。

供给侧改革支撑周期金融上涨

上周上证50指数大涨,带动沪指突破3300点关口。领涨的板块主要为大金融(保险、银行、券商)以及周期上游。回溯近十个交易日,不难发现行情走势先后为主板休整、创业板补估值、主板突破。从市场量能来看,本质上还是一个存量市格局特征,资金在局部板块起作用。虽然上周五全部A股成交金额为4685亿元,较前一日放量,但是低于前一周成交额。中证登公司6月以后暂停公布证券市场交易结算资金额,整体存量资金缺乏官方数据。但是从两融数据来看,增幅与增速都明显低于2014年牛市启动之初。

从基本面逻辑来看,创业板底部超跌反弹的主要原因在于内生因素,优质细分板块业绩领先于创业板整体回暖。创业板权重前三大板块包括计算机应用、互联网传媒和环保工程及服务,这三大板块累计权重为25.3%。这些板块的销售毛利率、销售净利率以及营业总收入从年报开始就优于创业板整体。在中报业绩中,这一优势进一步强化。中报公开信息中,机构重点加仓的创业板个股普遍来自于这三个板块。

周期上游板块的涨价逻辑略有差异,周期品的涨价主要源自政策面的外部原因。供给侧改革使得局部产能淘汰,在需求相对维稳的情况下,供给端出现了边际改善。数据显示,7月工业企业利润同比增速为21.2%,维持在高位,但是进一步从年初的高位小幅回落。主营业务收入增速小幅回落到13.1%,为年内低点。从领先指标来看,预计政策延续对企业业绩产生的边际改善力度递减。

大金融板块表现超预期,其中,保险、银行领涨。从量能角度看,银行板块上周五成交额为8月以来最高,表现最为强势。8月末大型上市企业财报将密集披露。从已经公布的大行报表来看,银行资产质量的改善较为明显。受益于供给侧改革以及对下半年息差扩大的预期,银行板块料有进一步上升空间。

近期政策面利好较为密集,随着中国联通复牌,国企改革持续发酵。国企改革以及供给侧改革成为年内最大的两条主线。临近十九大,市场维稳预期强烈。预计A股整体增量资金不足以支撑全板块普涨格局,预计IH与IC比价保持振荡回升的趋势。期指IF维持多头思路,谨慎者可持有多IH空IC比价策略,周度级别关注沪深300指数20日均线支撑。

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