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资金市场监测:利率市场全部上行

2017-08-22 13:28:04   中国经济网

8月21日,Shibor市场全部上涨,但涨幅都在两个基点之内。市场资金供求维持平衡状态,代表性利率的7天Shibor微涨0.30个基点至2.897%,环比小幅上行。市场预期国内经济发展势头继续趋好,有色金属、黑色产业链等价格大幅上扬,人民币对美元汇率回到6.7以下。隔夜利率上涨1.27个基点至2.8482%,环比上周同期小幅上涨。14天利率微涨0.93个基点至3.7247%。一个月利率上涨0.27个基点至3.8671%,继续在4%以下振荡。中长期利率延续小幅振荡,3个月、6个月、9个月和1年期利率分别报4.3464%、4.3847%、4.3923%、4.4020%。

图为隔夜、1周和1个月利率变化情况

表为Shibor(人民币)报价

近期上证综指继续处于上升通道,小幅调整后,继续上攻。我们认为,大盘站稳3300一线,只是时间问题。从形态上分析,沪指自3200点附近反弹以来,连续上涨,或将创出年内高点。从基本面分析,并没有重磅利多消息,A股的上涨主要是板块轮动带动的做多氛围爆发,从而引发“羊群效应”。从板块轮动上分析,资源股、混改股和次新股拉动上涨,带动整个市场做多气氛。煤炭、钢铁、有色等产品价格大幅上涨,相关企业股价也大幅上涨。近期国内A股保持上涨的可能性比较大,建议股票头寸可以继续持有,也可适当进行股指期货投资。

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