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资金市场监测:利率有望下降

2017-08-21 10:33:21   中国经济网

受流动性需求上升影响,上周国内利率水平延续此前上升的态势。截至8月18日,Shibor隔夜利率报收于2.8355%,较上周五上升4.55个基点;一周期利率报收于3.8644%,较上周五上升0.17个基点;半年期利率报收于4.3836%,较上周五上升1.63个基点;一年期利率为4.4010%,较上周五上升0.25个基点。

表为上海银行间同业拆放利率(单位:%)

图为上海银行间同业拆放利率(单位:%)

上周,央行共有6000亿元的逆回购到期,并且有2875亿元的MLF到期,即单周央行回笼流动性达到8875亿元。上周,央行进行了7100亿元的逆回购,并进行了3995亿元的MLF,向市场投放流动性11095亿元。总体来看,上周央行向市场净投放流动性2220亿元。不过,由于新增贷款增加,一级市场新发债券较多,市场对流动性的需求增加,造成了资金成本上升。不仅如此,M2增速为9.2%,连续五个月创出历史新低,使市场对流动性前景产生进一步的担忧情绪。

展望本周,央行共有7500亿元的逆回购到期,规模并不大。考虑到近期利率水平一直呈现偏高状态,以及上周央行向市场投放流动性力度较大,本周央行或延续宽松操作。而随着央行不断实现净投放,前期的宽松效用或显现,利率的水平有望下降。

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