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水泥、玻璃去产能风声再起 价格有望再度走高

2017-08-04 10:16:29   新华网

2016年5月,《关于促进建材工业稳增长调结构增效益的指导意见》提出,到2020年,水泥熟料、平板玻璃产量排名前10家企业的生产集中度将达60%左右。根据水泥供给侧改革目标,到“十三五”末期,水泥行业产能利用率将从现阶段的68%达到80%左右。接下来几年行业整体产能去化将在5亿吨左右。

从各地公布的去产能规模计划看,河南、江苏、吉林计划在两三年内化解过剩产能1000万吨以上;北京、天津、河北、山西、海南、青海、四川等地则化解水泥过剩产能100万-300万吨。

价格有望继续上行

尽管从环保部门督察结果来看,水泥、玻璃行业仍问题重重。但不得不承认,环保重压下,两行业产能已有所缩减,产品价格一度直线上升。

“目前全国P.O42.5散装水泥的均价在316元/吨。尽管从去年11月至今水泥价格整体呈现震荡回落态势,但当前正处行业淡季,加之3月份以来多数水泥企业复产,能维持300多元的吨价已属坚挺。”

卓创水泥分析师侯琳琳称,2016年11月前后,由于全国多地掀起错峰生产风潮,加之煤炭等原材料价格大涨,水泥价格也迅速走高。

“2016年11月末全国水泥均价在333元/吨,而在2015年11月,价格仅为249元/吨。11月到次年3月是水泥行业错峰生产期,3月份以来,很多水泥企业复产,整体价格略有回落。”侯琳琳称,国家统计局公布的数据显示,今年上半年全国水泥累计产量11.13亿吨,同比增长0.4%,但6月份单月产量已下滑0.9%,至2281万吨。华北、东北等错峰生产执行力度大的地区,产量下降明显。

她认为,水泥行业受季节因素影响较大,降雨、高温都会影响出货,所以夏季是水泥行业淡季。然而,进入8月中下旬以后,水泥需求量将会逐步复苏,随着金九银十基建市场复苏,加之11月份起新一轮环保错峰来袭,水泥价格后市有望再创阶段新高。

“去年以来,玻璃行业环保监察力度也趋严,生产厂商如果环保达不到标准,要么停产,要么增加脱硫脱硝设备进行完善。”玻璃行业分析师刘晴晴称,近年玻璃行业也面临环保随时抽查的局面。产能落后的企业去年已多半关停,今年如果环保没有达到标准,一些企业也面临延缓复产。

去年8月份,由于环保监察、上游原材料价格上涨、房地产市场景气度高等因素影响,玻璃全国均价从月初的1289元/吨涨至月底的1564元/吨,单月涨幅超过20%。此后,玻璃价格就一直维持坚挺,如今全国均价报1548元/吨。

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