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美元弱势难改 8月金价仍有上涨动能

2017-08-04 10:15:41   中国经济网

欧洲经济持续稳健复苏带动欧元强势上涨,美元被动走弱,同时美国通胀持续疲软,美元指数短期内缺乏强劲反弹的驱动力,8月金价仍有上涨空间。

欧元区经济复苏带动欧元走强

近期欧元区经济数据表现靓丽。二季度欧元区GDP季环比初值0.6%,同比初值2.1%,同比增速为2011年一季度以来的最高水平。周一公布的欧元区6月失业率为9.1%,创2009年2月以来新低。欧元区7月核心CPI同比初值1.2%,持平4月创下的四年新高。漂亮的经济数据表明欧元区经济正在稳步复苏,支撑欧元持续走强,而欧元走强则使得美元指数“跌跌不休”,目前欧元兑美元汇率在1.18附近,创2015年1月以来新高。

美国通胀疲软拖累加息步伐

相对于欧元区良好的经济表现,美国经济数据稍显逊色。美国二季度GDP较上季度明显反弹,实际GDP年化季环比初值2.6%;二季度个人消费支出(PCE)环比增长也较为明显。

但周二公布的美国6月个人消费支出几乎零增长,这是因为个人收入停止上涨。作为消费型大国的美国,消费支出的停滞不前将使得美国经济失去增长的动能。

而从美联储非常关心的通胀数据来看,美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比增速虽略好于预期,但是距离美联储设定的2%的目标值仍有明显差距。美联储主席耶伦在国会证词中表示通胀构成了一大重要的不确定因素。

我们认为,美国通胀的持续疲软已经成为美联储年内第三次加息的一大拦路虎。从能源价格角度考虑,虽然OPEC组织延长了减产时间,但各成员国对减产的执行力度有待观察。媒体调查显示,OPEC 7月原油日产量增加9万吨,为2017年高点,主要因为不受减产协议约束的利比亚原油供应进一步回升。同时,美国页岩油供应的冲击也使得全球原油库存维持高位,油价难以出现大幅上涨。

特朗普新政遇阻打击市场信心

特朗普政府近期可谓是“内忧外患”。最重要的是,特朗普推行其竞选方案持续受阻。特朗普竞选纲领的主要内容包括扩大基建投资、税改、废除奥巴马医保等。基建投资无影无踪;税改方案目前为止只公布了一页的计划纲要,具体细节仍未公布,而且想要通过参众两院也面临重重阻碍;医改方面更是接连受挫,医改替代法案已经接近夭折。

此外,全球主要央行退出量化宽松的预期加剧了7月金价的下跌。目前来看,欧央行在7月议息会议上按兵不动,美国近期偏差的经济数据以及通胀疲软也将拖累美联储加息步伐。8月美联储及欧央行均没有议息会议,货币政策收紧带来的利空暂时消退,为8月金价的上行注入驱动力。

总之,我们认为,受强势欧元打压、国内经济数据偏弱以及特朗普新政遇阻等因素影响,美元指数短期内缺乏强劲反弹的驱动力,金价仍有向上的动能。

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