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资金市场监测:利率市场小幅波动

2017-08-01 10:22:27   中国经济网

7月31日,Shibor市场五涨三跌。利率市场窄幅波动,涨跌不一,市场流动性相对充足。代表性利率的7天Shibor微涨0.50个基点至2.882%,环比继续小幅上涨。国内经济发展继续向好,美国二季度经济增长回暖,但仍低于预期,使得美元指数继续呈现弱势,人民币汇率继续走强。隔夜利率下挫0.92个基点至2.806%,环比上周同期小幅上涨。14天利率微涨0.20个基点至3.705%。一个月利率下跌0.25个基点至3.889%,继续在4%以下振荡。中国经济发展势头继续趋好,宏观政策不会有实质性的变化,货币政策仍旧以稳为主。中长期利率延续小幅振荡,3个月、6个月、9个月和1年期利率分别报4.2561%、4.3493%、4.3790%、4.3881%。

图为隔夜、1周和1个月利率变化情况

表为Shibor(人民币)报价

近期上证综指延续反弹,近期有望上攻3300一线。从形态上分析,上证综指仍处于上行通道。从影响因素变化分析,我们认为,A股市场上涨行情仍然可期。二季度经济数据显著超市场预期,当前制造业投资和出口增速回升势头明确、居民收入增速稳步提升,预计消费下半年好于上半年、房地产开发投资增速向上超预期可能性很大。诸多机构预计下半年整体经济仍会相对较好。从已经公布的上市公司中报数据来看,主板公司利润增速继续攀升。市场风格上,当前市场重心从成长性转向产业集中以及主板传统行业基本面回升的两个逻辑均没有改变。总之,国内A股涨势未变,但是不同板块差异较大,可以有选择的进行操作。

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