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过去这一年以来,资本市场发生了很多事情,银行、证券、保险行业的资产管理机构面临的监管环境也发生了很大变化。资产配置是资产管理行业永恒的主题,关于这个主题,国际同行已经有了多年的理论探索和投资实践,国内这些年也有很多这方面的研究和实践。今天,我想围绕大类资产配置这个主题,结合近一年来市场的发展变化,从几个不同角度分享一下自己的观察和思考。
第一个角度,从国内外机构的资产配置对比来看,资产配置的理论要和中国的实际情况相结合,才有可能取得良好的投资业绩。国际上受到一致认可的机构投资人是耶鲁大学捐赠基金,多年来一直保持了出色的投资业绩,在大类资产配置方面也颇有研究;国内大家比较认可的是全国社保基金,从成立以来,保持了较好的投资业绩。就在社保基金理事会成立的2000年,耶鲁大学捐赠基金的David Swensen先生出版了他的投资专著,后来被翻译成为中文版的《机构投资与基金管理的创新》,书中系统阐述了关于资产配置的理论和实践,这本书成为全球机构投资人学习研究的经典著述。社保基金在成立之初,也系统研究学习了书中的资产配置理论,应该是国内最早的系统研究大类资产配置并有大量长期资金付诸投资实践的投资机构。
研究耶鲁基金的年报,可以看出几个特点,该基金在全球范围内较大比例配置了权益类资产,固定收益加现金资产不足8%,其余全部是权益类资产和另类资产;在权益类资产中,流动性相对较差的并购基金(LBO)和风险投资基金(Venture Capital)合计超过了30%,而且最近五年在风险投资领域的配置一直在增加,相比美国其它同类大学捐赠基金的配置比较激进,大比例配置于风险资产,尤其是海外股票和另类投资占比尤其高,但正是这样的配置安排,为其获取了超额收益,用中国的古语说就是“艺高人胆大”。耶鲁捐赠基金30多人的投资团队,管理着250多亿美元的资产进行全球投资,能够取得优秀的投资业绩,是领悟了投资的精髓,比较好地运用了资产配置理论、遵守了投资的内在规律、设计了符合人性的制度安排,并且结合全球不同经济体的经济发展情况取得的。
中国的情况不太一样,我们过去这些年经历了经济的高速发展,从资产配置的角度来看,机构可以进行配置的资产类别也在逐渐丰富,但由于多种原因,房地产成了唯一强势资产,老百姓过去十年任何时点买房子都是最好的选择。社保基金由于政策的限制,无法配置房地产资产,但通过配置股票、债券以及PE投资,也获得了很好的投资业绩。这就说明,仅从追求收益的角度来看,大类资产配置没有放之四海而皆准的定式,要把国际上成熟的配置理论和国家特定历史发展阶段的现状结合起来判断,才能取得好的投资收益。
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