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人民币汇率升破6.73关口 市场继续看涨

2017-08-01 10:22:26   新华网

人民币已连续3个月对美元强势走升,市场看涨人民币汇率的热情高涨。

在这样的趋势下,企业结汇意愿也水涨船高。“之前人民币汇率在6.75的时候,老板还有些犹豫,可是看到人民币汇率势如破竹,突破一个个关键点位,就毫不犹豫要求赶紧结汇,不敢再承担外汇敞口风险了。”一家公司的财务人员告诉记者。

大行交易员也表示,远期结售汇已经连续3个月出现顺差,结汇意愿稳中有升。

7月以来,人民币汇率累计上涨506个基点。31日,人民币对美元中间价调升90个基点,报6.7283,为去年10月14日以来新高,当月累计调升461个基点。

昨日开盘后,在岸、离岸人民币汇率双双跳涨近百点,在6.72—6.73区间震荡。截至当日16:30,在岸人民币对美元报6.7290,收涨139个基点,创逾9个月以来的新高。

“人民币对美元的升值,得益于美元连续3个月跳水下跌,这是2014年以来首次出现连续3个月人民币对美元升值。”外汇分析师李刘阳对记者表示。

“总体上人民币对美元双边汇率的波动,将大于对一篮子货币指数的波动。”李刘阳表示,在近日人民币汇率强势上涨带动下,人民币对一篮子货币的指数也呈现稳中有升的态势。

尽管外汇交易中心公布的数据显示,7月28日CFETS人民币汇率指数报92.74,较前一周略降0.17%,但据李刘阳测算,31日CFETS人民币汇率指数为92.76,较上周五企稳回升。

民生银行高级研究员应习文认为,美国二季度GDP数据不及预期,致使四季度美联储加息预期概率下降,进一步促使美元保持弱势。人民币对美元前期虽有所升值,但幅度不及其他非美货币,导致一篮子指数有所下跌,但近期已逐步企稳,因此在美元下跌时人民币汇率上涨的弹性增大。

综合来看,受访专家一致认为,美元指数长期难言乐观,人民币汇率借势上行,触及6.7或已为期不远。

德国商业银行亚洲高级经济学家周浩认为,伴随美元持续走弱,人民币对美元已突破多个关键点位,美元指数短期不乐观,预计人民币汇率很有可能触及6.7。

“后续美元短期可能会有反弹,但长期仍看跌。因此,人民币汇率长期仍会上涨,短期可能会出现双向波动。”李刘阳表示,从月K线上看,人民币对美元汇率的强支撑在6.4。目前突破6.75之后,人民币对美元可能会很快升破6.70,之后可能会随美元的反弹而双向波动。

应习文也判断,人民币对美元汇率仍将略偏强势,未来人民币对美元汇率有较大概率在6.7至6.75之间双向波动。

考虑到美元指数可能继续低位震荡、中国经济数据稳中向好、监管部门针对外汇和资本流动的宏观微观审慎监管持续强化,未来人民币对美元汇率仍将略偏强势。(记者 张玉)

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