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盈亏平衡价格不断下滑 未来油价“上顶下底”格局延续

2017-07-01 23:43:12    经济参考报

2016年许多石油公司的盈亏平衡油价降至40美元/桶,主要原因可归结于整个油气产业链的萧条,然而盈亏平衡油价的下降给石油价格的回升带来了巨大挑战。目前技术可开采的已探明石油储量是到2050年全球需求的两倍,在供给端宽松、需求端难有大起色的情况下,石油开采的盈亏平衡成本和边际成本成为决定油价的关键。

盈亏平衡油价的概念是按照目前的税费水平、成本费用、折旧等,将公司探明储量按照X美元/桶进行销售,并将预计的现金流入、现金流出按照10%折现率折现后使得收支平衡的石油价格。

2016年主要石油公司的盈亏平衡油价降至每桶40美元左右。页岩油公司成本下降中10%得益于技术,而90%是在牺牲油服公司、设备公司等上游产业链利益的情况下实现;而传统石油公司主要是得益于2014年以来油田服务公司为了争夺有限的项目而进行亏本竞争,以及石油公司大力度的“降本增效”。另外,在目前的市场条件下,会计工具也可能成为盈亏平衡价格下降的一个重要原因。

目前已生产产油区的盈亏平衡价格已经降到了29美元/桶附近。其中,页岩油产油方式的盈亏平衡价格仅为28美元/桶。在经历了油价暴跌带来的存亡危机后,页岩油行业内部已经发生了大浪淘沙式的变化,在行业重新得到充分整合之后,来自技术领域的开采成本和非技术层面的管理运营成本都得到了压缩。

大部分产油国不得不接受目前油价。随着OPEC对市场的决定力量减弱,产油国财政盈亏平衡价格的指挥棒能力降低,大部分产油国不得不通过缩减财政支出、消耗外汇储备、汇率贬值等手段被动接受油价变化

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