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专家:随着翘尾因素走高 6月CPI同比涨幅将上升

2017-06-12 10:02:44   经济参考报

国家统计局日前发布数据显示,5月,全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)环比下降0.1%,同比上涨1.5%;工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)环比下降0.3%,同比上涨5.5%。专家表示,随着翘尾因素走高,6月CPI同比涨幅将继续上升,未来价格走势可能将仍然维持PPI同比走高和CPI同比走低的组合。

据国家统计局城市司高级统计师绳国庆分析,从环比看,5月CPI走势基本平稳。食品类价格下降0.7%,影响CPI下降约0.14个百分点。其中,鲜菜由于气温上升供给量增加,价格下降6.2%;鸡蛋供大于求,价格下降4.1%;猪肉供应充足,价格下降2.9%。三项合计影响CPI下降约0.24个百分点。从同比看,食品价格下降1.6%,影响CPI下降约0.32个百分点。其中,鸡蛋、猪肉和鲜菜价格同比下降较多,降幅分别为16.8%、12.8%和6.3%,三项合计影响CPI下降约0.61个百分点。

交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,5月CPI同比涨幅上升0.3个百分点至1.5%,主要原因是翘尾因素拉动,5月翘尾因素从上月的0.56%回升至1.02%,上升了0.46个百分点。他认为,由于6月翘尾因素将达到年内最高点,预计6月CPI同比仍将继续走高,但下半年随着总需求的小幅回落,监管政策去杠杆防风险导致流动性有所收紧,市场利率小幅走高,这些都会导致物价承压。预计年内CPI同比将呈现中间高、两头低的走势。

5月PPI同比涨幅比上个月收窄0.9个百分点,连续三个月回落,超过半数工业行业产品价格下跌。连平认为,PPI仍会逐渐下降。从翘尾因素来看,6月PPI翘尾因素略有上升,但之后继续逐月下降,将成为影响PPI走弱的重要因素。企业补库存周期逐渐减弱,工业和制造业生产回暖势头有所放缓,预计二季度之后经济增长势头有所放缓,不会显著拉动需求。货币政策稳健中性和金融监管去杠杆,不会出现释放流动性抬高工业产品价格的现象。

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