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煤电去产能须与体制改革协同推进

2017-06-12 10:02:27   经济参考报

在有关部门频繁调控督导下,一度高位运行的煤价持续向“合理区间”回落,此前凸显的煤电顶牛有所缓和。但是,缓解并不意味着结束。要想从根本上消弭矛盾,必须统筹推进煤、电去产能和电力市场化改革、国企改革。

作为唇齿相依的上下游产业,我国煤炭和电力行业一直处于此起彼伏的“零和博弈”状态。从上世纪九十年代一直到2003年,煤炭价格一路走低,煤企日子不好过,而火电企业保持着不错的利润。但自2003年以后,煤炭行业进入“黄金十年”,火电企业则日益困难。2012年之后,形势再次反转,煤价一落千丈,火电盈利大幅增加。不过,这样的“好日子”没持续几年,在去产能的大背景下,去年下半年以来煤炭价格同比大涨,到今年一季度已有近四成上市火电企业陷入亏损,而上市煤企业绩则普遍飘红,近九成净利翻倍。

正因为是“零和博弈”,煤电矛盾屡屡爆发。最激烈的当属2011年山西中南部13家电厂多次“联名上书”,直至派负责人赴京向国家相关部门请求调高电价。今年3月,宁夏7大火电厂又联名向当地经信委反映,煤价上涨导致火电企业经营困难,要求解决问题,相关煤企却明确回复,不会降价,不签约则断供。

事实上,政府有关部门一直试图调和煤电矛盾。从早期的电煤计划价格,到后来的煤电联动,再到两次电煤最高限价,又到最近调研督导电煤中长期合同签订及履约情况,多举措增加煤炭有效供应,推动煤价回归。然而,这一切努力作用有限,从中长期看,过多使用“有形之手”,对于建立一个健康稳定的市场体系也是不利的。

煤电矛盾的深层次原因,仍应从“市场煤”与“计划电”之间找寻。虽然我国电力体制改革先于煤炭,但后者却更早地实现了市场化定价,而前者仍由政府管控。起初,很多人将两者的顺利联接,寄望于煤电价格联动,但受诸多因素影响,存在着联动不及时和调整幅度不到位等问题。

据统计,从2004年到2016年,因触发煤电联动机制而调整电价仅四次。去年煤价一年基本翻倍,煤电标杆上网电价却因幅度不足而未上调。再则,由于煤炭和火电这两大产业去产能等供给侧改革未能同步进行,与此前相比,火电行业面临着不小的过剩压力,对价格波动更加敏感,可在新一轮体制改革进展有限的情况下,又很难通过其他渠道转移压力。此外,煤炭、电力及下游用户利益联动机制不完善,尤其是煤价剧烈波动处于不合理区间时,上下游往往博弈大于合作。

要从根本上解决多年来的“煤电顶牛”问题,首先要加快电力体制改革,把“计划电”变成“市场电”,实现“有形之手”和“无形之手”的联动。在此过程中,寻求价格平衡区间,使上下游行业都能找到合理的生产空间。其次,完善煤炭企业、火电企业、用户之间的利益共享、风险共担、协同发展和联动机制,寻求用市场方法解决矛盾。比如煤电双方可以向对方产业发展,或者通过资本市场形成稳定的利益共同体,这样可以起到一定程度的风险对冲。当然,这需要和国企改革等相配套。第三,应运用市场化和法治化手段,协调推进煤炭和电力行业去产能,尤其是电企应抓住时机调整结构,提高效率,淘汰落后,降低能耗,提高自身市场竞争力。

(责编:王子侯、乔雪峰)

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